Declining mining activity flashes 'bullish signal' for bitcoin price, VanEck says

A new VanEck report suggests the recent dip in mining activity could signal a bullish turn for bitcoin, echoing historical market patterns.

In a Monday report titled "Mid-December 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck," VanEck analysts said bitcoin has historically been more likely to post positive returns following periods of declining mining activity.

They found that since 2014, 90-day forward bitcoin returns were positive 65% of the time when the network's hashrate was shrinking, compared with 54% when hashrate was growing. 

"Some empirical evidence suggests drops in hashrate can be bullish for long-term holders," VanEck analysts said, describing the pattern as a "contrarian signal" tied to miner capitulation, where weaker operators exit the network under financial stress.

VanEck said this historical correlation is resurfacing as bitcoin's hashrate fell 4% in the month through Dec. 15, which is the sharpest decline since April 2024.

"Additionally, when hashrate compression persists over longer periods, positive forward returns tend to occur more often and with greater magnitude," the report said.

Mounting pressure for miners

Mining profitability has worsened alongside bitcoin's recent price weakness. VanEck's report shows breakeven electricity costs for a mid-generation mining rig such as the Antminer S19 XP have fallen sharply, from around $0.12 per kilowatt-hour in late 2024 to approximately $0.077 by mid-December 2025. 

Breakeven electricity cost is the maximum power price a crypto miner can afford without losing money, and its decline typically signals deteriorating mining profitability as only lower-cost operators can remain viable.

Bitcoin remains volatile after slipping to a low of around $81,000 on Nov. 21 from its all-time high of $126,080 recorded a month prior. The cryptocurrency is down 1.09% to $87,907 over the past 24 hours leading up to 12:05 a.m., Tuesday, according to The Block's price page.

While miners face mounting pressure, longer-term institutional buyers have taken up space to absorb supply, the report noted. VanEck said digital asset treasuries (DATs) in particular have accelerated purchases over the past month, buying on the price dips. 

From mid-November to mid-December, DATs bought roughly 42,000 BTC, a 4% month-over-month increase, lifting aggregate holdings to about 1.09 million BTC, according to the report. The accumulation marked the largest monthly purchase by DATs since mid-July to mid-August 2025, when treasuries added more than 128,000 BTC.

"Going forward, we believe many DATs' strategies will be to move away from common stock issuance and instead finance BTC purchases with proceeds from preference share sales," VanEck said.