Bitcoin Resilience Tested: Price Loses Key Support Band, Drop to $105,000 Likely

Bitcoin is facing heightened selling pressure after days of persistent decline, fueling fears of a deeper market correction. 

The crypto king has lost ground as bearish momentum strengthens, with limited support from macroeconomic conditions further worsening sentiment.

Bitcoin Faces Correction

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are playing a critical role in the current selloff, with significant outflows marking the week. Since Monday, the funds have recorded withdrawals totaling $226 million. This is a sharp reversal from the steady inflows seen earlier this month. Such moves reflect growing caution among institutional investors.

Wednesday brought an unexpected twist as inflows of $241 million briefly offset prior exits. Yet the sharp swings highlight uncertainty, making ETF participants an unreliable support base for Bitcoin. This volatility highlights how sentiment remains fragile, with even large players shifting positions quickly under market stress.

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Bitcoin ETF Data. Source:

Beyond ETFs, broader signals are pointing toward more downside risk for Bitcoin. The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model shows BTC slipping under the 0.95 quantile band, an area closely watched by analysts. This range typically represents heavy profit-taking zones for long-term holders.

A sustained decline below this risk band would confirm bearish conditions. Historically, such moves have preceded steep drawdowns, putting price targets between $105,000 and $90,000 in play. With macroeconomic headwinds and cautious institutional flows, Bitcoin’s outlook leans heavily toward weakness.

Bitcoin Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model. Source:

BTC Price Is Sliding

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $111,542, reflecting a 4.7% weekly decline. The crypto king remains stuck below the $112,500 resistance, unable to attract enough momentum to flip the level into support.

Furthermore, if bearish pressure persists, Bitcoin could break through $110,000 support, opening a path to $108,000. Additionally, continued selling could extend the drawdown further, pushing BTC to $105,000 in the near term.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: 

Nevertheless, if investors step in to stabilize price action, Bitcoin could reclaim $112,500 as support. A successful bounce from that level would challenge the prevailing bearish narrative, potentially setting the stage for recovery and invalidating the downside outlook.