News

Jinse Finance reported that Cryptoquant analyst Axel Adler Jr released a market analysis stating that the overall macro market environment remains neutral: although the MOVE index has slightly rebounded, the US Dollar Index continues to support risk appetite, and the yield curve of 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds remains stable, with no fluctuations in real yields. However, the stock market is sending localized risk-off signals (the S&P 500 index fell by 0.98%), so the current market structure is still in a balanced state, with a medium risk level (5/10), and no clear directional trend has emerged yet.

BlockBeats News, December 18th, according to analysis by UBS, this week's job report revealed a potential softness in the US labor market, which could serve as a basis for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates early next year. UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan pointed out in a note to clients that this data "sounded alarm bells" in many areas. Due to the government shutdown exacerbating the issue of low response rates in the Labor Department's survey, caution is needed in interpreting the quality of the data. Morgan Wealth Management's Investment Strategy Director Elyse Ausenbaugh also expressed concerns, especially about the October data. She stated that this report reinforces the market's view of the current Fed policy path. The past few months of "insurance" rate cuts have been a cautious move to bring rates back to a more neutral level. She believes that a further rate cut in the first quarter of 2026 may be appropriate, but for now, the economy remains stable, and the Fed is patiently observing for future action. (FXStreet)

PANews, December 18 – According to monitoring by Glassnode, the price of bitcoin remains in a fragile range, constrained by high-level supply pressure, increased realized losses, and weakening demand. Recently, the price encountered resistance around $93,000 and gradually retreated to $85,600. Market structure shows that the dense supply zone between $93,000 and $120,000 continues to suppress rebounds. At the same time, the failure to break through the 0.75 quantile line (around $95,000) and the short-term holder cost basis (around $101,500) has limited upward momentum. Currently, demand is providing support near the true market mean of $81,300, preventing further price declines. On-chain data shows that the supply in loss has risen to 6.7 million BTC, the highest level of this cycle, with 23.7% of circulating supply in a loss position, including 10.2% from long-term holders and 13.5% from short-term holders. The time pressure on loss supply is intensifying, and some investors may choose to sell at a loss due to weakened confidence, further increasing market selling pressure. Currently, loss-making sellers hold about 360,000 BTC. If the price falls below the true market mean of $81,300, more loss-making sellers may emerge. Spot market demand is brief and highly selective. One exchange shows relatively stable performance, but another exchange experiences significant traffic fluctuations, with no overall trend of sustained accumulation. Corporate bitcoin inflows remain sporadic events and have not formed continuous demand. The futures market is clearly de-risking, with no leverage-driven downward pressure observed. Funding rates remain neutral, leverage is reduced but has not supported price increases. The options market remains in a range-bound state, with short-term volatility further compressed after the FOMC, while long-term volatility remains stable. The 25-delta skew indicates that downside risk is still being priced in but is stabilizing. Options flow shows that traders tend to sell put options to collect premiums while maintaining a certain level of downside protection. The concentration of options expiries on December 19 and December 26 has limited price volatility, and the market structure is expected to readjust after the large-scale expiries at the end of the year. Overall, bitcoin price fluctuates between the $81,000 support and $93,000 selling pressure. Breaking through key cost benchmarks (such as the short-term holder cost basis of $101,500) or attracting new liquidity is necessary to break the current range-bound pattern.