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Jinse Finance reported that trillion-dollar asset management giant Vanguard Group has issued a warning that the market is seriously underestimating Japan's neutral interest rate level. The group's global head of rates, Harrem, stated that the Bank of Japan needs higher rates than the market expects to effectively curb inflation, and predicts that the central bank will continue to raise rates at its December 19 meeting. Currently, Japan's policy rate is 0.5%, while the neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5%. Vanguard Group advises investors to underweight Japanese short-term government bonds, believing that underweighting Japanese bonds at the short end of the yield curve is the correct strategy to avoid risk.

Jinse Finance reported, citing Decrypt, that Polymarket yesterday announced the results of the 2025 Google search trend predictions, with the little-known singer d4vd unexpectedly winning. A user with the code 0xafEe accurately bet on all major candidates and earned $1.15 million, sparking suspicions of insider trading. This user not only correctly predicted d4vd's victory (with only a 0.2% chance at the time), but also accurately judged that popular candidates such as Pope Leo XIV and Trump would lose. Afterward, the user immediately changed their nickname, adding further suspicion to their actions. A senior Polymarket user, Car, questioned on the X platform: "This is basically an internal employee making extra money." However, some believe that insider trading is a feature rather than a flaw of such platforms, making prediction markets closer to real probabilities.