The recent liquidity squeeze in the cryptocurrency market has triggered a noticeable downward trend in altcoins, significantly affecting AI-themed tokens. As the year draws to a close, investors are revisiting their risk appetites, resulting in severe losses in both the prices and trading volumes of AI-focused projects. Market participants are now debating whether this decline is temporary or signals the onset of a more widespread bear market.
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A growing voice in the market suggests that AI-themed assets might be forming a “bubble.” This concern primarily stems from the weakening of global employment figures. Historically, there is a strong correlation between U.S. employment data and stock markets. Employment growth has been known to support macro indices like the S&P 500, whereas declines in employment tend to coincide with market weakness.
However, recent analyses by Alphractal reveal that this relationship has deteriorated in recent years. While the labor force participation rate has dropped to 59.4%, the S&P 500 index has risen by 17.81% since the start of the year. Experts attribute this divergence to the artificial momentum created by AI-focused companies in the stock markets. This sector continues to elevate markets despite generating limited official employment. Alphractal argues that current conditions resemble past market bubbles, with a significant breakpoint potentially emerging by 2026.
Pressure on AI Tokens and Altcoin Market
The sharp decline in AI tokens highlights the strong link between the crypto and traditional finance markets. According to Curvo data, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has persisted since 2011. Stock market surges have supported crypto, while declines have mirrored those in the crypto market. Today, a similar pattern is observed between AI stocks and AI tokens.
Data from Artemis shows that AI tokens have lost 24.9% in value over the past month. The annual loss has reached a striking 74.6%. With a 20% decline in trading volume to $3.48 billion, it’s clear that investor confidence is waning. When price and volume decrease together, it typically signals fading market momentum.
This situation isn’t limited to AI tokens alone. The broader altcoin market is also under pressure. Potential economic slowdowns in the U.S. and reduced capital entering risky assets are accelerating altcoin exits. Current data indicates that the altcoin market has declined by 34%, with its market cap falling from $1.77 trillion to $1.16 trillion. If the negative sentiment persists, the total market value may shrink to the $1 trillion level.
It is worth noting that recent signals from European Central Bank officials for stricter regulation of risky digital assets have further intensified the market pressure.
In conclusion, current data indicates that AI-themed crypto projects are priced solely based on the tech narrative and increasingly conflict with macroeconomic realities. In an environment of tightening liquidity and rising risk aversion, AI tokens are likely to retain their volatile course in the near term. For investors, this period could be a time to reevaluate long-term fundamentals rather than short-term expectations.
