Quantum computing will not cause a cryptocurrency collapse in 2026, but caution is needed regarding the "collect now, decrypt later" risk

According to Odaily, experts from institutions such as Argentum AI and Coin Bureau stated in interviews that the threat of quantum computing to cryptocurrencies in 2026 remains theoretical rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, Head of AI at Argentum AI, said that the commercial application of quantum computing in 2026 is expected to be extremely limited. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, stated that 90% of the quantum threat narrative is marketing, and it will be at least another decade before computers capable of breaking current cryptography appear.

Nevertheless, experts pointed out that the public-key cryptography relied upon by blockchain networks such as Bitcoin carries potential risks. Sofiia Kireieva, an expert at Boosty Labs, noted that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used for private and public keys is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function is less vulnerable. Ahmad Shadid, founder of O Foundation, stated that address reuse significantly increases the risk of being compromised.

Currently, about 25% to 30% of BTC (approximately 4 million coins) are stored in addresses where the public key has been exposed, making these addresses more susceptible to quantum computer attacks. Sean Ren, co-founder of Sahara AI, warned that the real threat in 2026 is not system collapse, but that attackers are collecting as much encrypted data as possible in order to decrypt it when technology matures in the future. Leo Fan, co-founder of Cysic, described this as a "collect now, decrypt later" attack scenario.

To address potential threats, the crypto community has already taken action. In November, Qastle announced plans to provide quantum-level security protection for hot wallets by upgrading underlying cryptography. Experts recommend that users avoid reusing addresses and migrate funds promptly when quantum-resistant wallets become available. Although a quantum doomsday will not occur in 2026, quantum computing will become an advanced risk factor in the field of crypto security. (Cointelegraph)