Analysis: After tomorrow's largest-ever options expiration, BTC volatility may increase; if BTC drops to $80,000–$82,000, a potential rebound opportunity may arise.

BlockBeats News, December 25, data analyst Murphy stated that approximately $23.6 billion worth of bitcoin options will expire tomorrow, marking the largest options expiration date in bitcoin's history. After market makers unwind related hedging positions, the support and resistance previously formed by the options structure will temporarily become invalid, which may amplify BTC volatility in the short term until all participants place new bets and the market forms a new capital structure.

If BTC pulls back to the previous bottom area (around $80,000–$82,000) during this period, it will present an opportunity to bet on a "short-term rebound." The volatility that appears during the capital structure vacuum period does not necessarily signal the start of a new round of sharp declines. Moreover, there are currently "bullish divergence" signals appearing on a small scale in the "price and capital inflow gradient."

The "price and capital inflow gradient" measures the relative momentum change between BTC price momentum and actual capital inflows. When the speed of capital outflow is smaller compared to the rate of BTC price decline, it can be interpreted as a correction to the downward trend, indicating a demand for a rebound.

After the four "bullish divergence" signals that appeared during 2024–2025 and 2021–2022, BTC experienced rebounds of varying degrees, and even trend reversals. However, considering that the overall market sentiment is still in a bearish correction phase, the probability of the former is greater.