Lighter TGE Coming Soon: Comprehensive Overview of Timing Window, On-chain Signals, and Market Pricing

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

On December 13, Coinbase Markets announced on X that Lighter has been added to its listing roadmap; on December 21, Lighter's official Discord released an announcement requiring users to complete airdrop address registration by December 26; on December 23, Binance launched pre-market trading for Lighter (LIT) perpetual contracts. With several key milestones achieved in quick succession, the market's expectations for Lighter's imminent TGE have rapidly intensified.

On-chain data further confirms this judgment. On December 20, the Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT to a new address; this morning, that address distributed varying amounts of tokens to 20 addresses, with the largest single transfer being about 3.1 million and the smallest about 9,820 LIT. The address currently still holds about 230 million LIT. Although the official purpose of this batch of tokens has not been disclosed, the community widely speculates that it may be related to airdrop distribution.

It is worth noting that 250 million LIT accounts for exactly 25% of the total token supply, which is highly consistent with previous community speculation that "25% of the share is for airdrops," further strengthening the market's belief that Lighter's TGE is imminent.

Lighter token contract transferred 250 million LIT to a new address

In terms of timing expectations, members who previously participated in Lighter's Japan AMA reported that the TGE may occur between December 24 and January 1 next year; December 29 is currently the most likely date, with a probability of about 75%.

Polymarket prediction event: "When will Lighter conduct TGE"

Lighter ranks first in Perp Dex sector by perpetual contract trading volume in the past 30 days

Lighter is a perpetual contract trading platform built on Ethereum Layer 2 (L2), aiming to combine the speed and liquidity of centralized exchanges (CEX) with the security and transparency of decentralized exchanges (DEX).

In the past 30 days, Lighter led the Perp Dex sector with approximately $232.3 billion in perpetual contract trading volume, ahead of Aster ($195.5 billion) and Hyperliquid ($182 billion).

Perp Dex sector perpetual contract trading volume ranking

In addition, Lighter's TVL has continued to rise in recent months, with TVL now exceeding $1.4 billion, surpassing Aster ($1.27 billion).

Lighter TVL data

If Aster is backed by Binance, then Lighter is backed by Ethereum. As Lighter CEO Vladimir Novakovski previously commented on X, "Being an L1 is a bug, not a feature."

Lighter CEO comments on Lighter's choice of modular L2 approach

Lighter does not choose the closed architecture of HyperLiquid's self-built L1, but instead takes "Ethereum-native composability" as its core approach: LLP Token can circulate on the mainnet and collaborate with DeFi protocols such as Aave, thus enjoying a low-cost, low-latency, and verifiable execution environment in an open ecosystem. In other words, Lighter's goal is to allow any protocol to reuse its matching engine and capital system. Lighter does not aim to replace Ethereum, but to evolve with Ethereum and become the underlying engine for high-performance on-chain finance.

Lighter Valuation and Pre-market Pricing

According to Binance's pre-market trading for perpetual contracts, LIT's price started at $3.9 and has slowly declined, currently quoted at $3.2. At the current price, Lighter's fully diluted valuation (FDV) is about $3.2 billion.

If 25% of the total token supply is used entirely for future airdrops, and assuming a total of 12 million points, then each point corresponds to about 20.8 LIT. Based on the current pre-market price, each point is worth about $66.

Market Participants' Valuation Range Estimates

Crypto KOL ingalvarez.sol made a valuation prediction for Lighter based on Polymarket, OTC points prices, and LIT pre-market prices:

• $1.5 billion: Minimum valuation in a pessimistic scenario, corresponding to a token price of about $1.5;
• $3–4.2 billion: Bear market benchmark range, corresponding to a token price of about $3 to $4;
• $7.5–12.5 billion: Optimistic scenario, corresponding to a token price of about $7.5 to $12.5;

Another early Lighter user, Chuk, also made predictions based on Lighter's TVL, trading volume, revenue, and other data:

• Bear market range ($1.5–4.2 billion FDV): If the price runs within this range after TGE, it can be considered an opportunity range. The psychological pressure for holding airdrops is lowest, and the risk-reward ratio is clearest;
• Benchmark range ($4.2–7.5 billion FDV): If Lighter can stabilize TVL and maintain a leading scale, this range can be considered fair value. Once the price enters this range, it is suitable for phased profit-taking while retaining some positions;
• Bull market range ($7.5–12.5 billion+ FDV): This range means that core catalysts have been fully priced in by the market, including RWA momentum and distribution narratives (fintech/brokerage alignment) forming consensus. At this stage, it is more appropriate to continue reducing positions as the price rises.

The probability of exceeding $1 billion FDV is as high as 88%, and the probability of exceeding $2 billion FDV is also 83%.

Polymarket event: "Lighter FDV one day after launch"

In summary, the market's lowest expectation for Lighter's opening valuation is $1.5 billion FDV, corresponding to a token price of $1.5. Therefore, if the opening price falls back, $1.5 is an ideal short-term bottom-fishing price.

Do not "celebrate prematurely"—always pay attention to official updates

For early users who participated in Lighter interactions, do not "celebrate prematurely"; points cannot be considered actual gains until they are converted into real LIT tokens. According to the latest announcement on Lighter's official Discord, "We have entered the final stage of Season 2 points activity, and are currently conducting data analysis to remove sybil addresses, self-trading, and wash trading points. All deducted points (including those already removed) will be redistributed to the community."

Latest announcement from Lighter's official Discord