Opinion: The absence of a sharp surge in Bitcoin by the end of the year means a crash is unlikely in the first quarter.

According to Odaily, Anthony Pompliano stated in an interview with CNBC that the lack of a frenzied price surge for bitcoin by the end of the year could serve as a catalyst to prevent a major crash in the first quarter of next year. He pointed out that, given bitcoin's current significantly compressed volatility, the likelihood of a 70% or 80% pullback is extremely low.

Anthony Pompliano noted that although bitcoin has not reached the $250,000 target expected by some investors, it has still risen 100% in two years and nearly 300% in three years, maintaining strong performance in financial markets. He added that while the reduced volatility may disappoint holders who value upside potential, it also provides safety on the downside, reducing the probability of large-scale pullbacks. Currently, bitcoin is trading at $87,436, down 7.39% since the beginning of the year. In addition, Peter Brandt predicts that bitcoin could fall to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026, while Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro Research at Fidelity, believes bitcoin's price could drop to $65,000 in 2026.