Bitcoin Mining Trends Predict Rise in Crypto Prices

$87,546.06

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Why is Hashrate Decline Considered a “Contrary Indicator”?

VanEck analysts found a notable asymmetry in forward 90-day Bitcoin returns measured since 2014. They noted that when the network’s hash rate decreases, the probability of positive returns rises to 65%, compared to a 54% probability when hash rate increases. The report concludes that hash rate declines align more frequently with favorable outcomes for long-term investors.

The study explains this relationship through the concept of “miner capitulation.” As operators facing financial pressure exit the network, a portion of the selling pressure is priced in early, allowing supply balance to stabilize more healthily. VanEck pointed out that when hash rate contractions persisted over a longer period, forward returns tended to be more frequent and higher.

Changing Buyer Profiles as Miners Struggle

VanEck reports that miner profitability worsens alongside Bitcoin’s weak performance. For example, the breakeven electricity cost for a mid-generation device like the Antminer S19 XP dropped from about $0.12/kWh in late 2024 to approximately $0.077/kWh by mid-December 2025. The falling breakeven cost indicates that operations with more expensive electricity are less sustainable.

Price volatility continues on the Bitcoin front. After falling to around $81,000 on November 21, Bitcoin remained volatile, far from its record high of $126,080 recorded a month prior. The largest cryptocurrency is trading at $87,554, reflecting a 1.66% drop over the past 24 hours.

The report also highlights that long-term institutional buyers counterbalance mining pressures. Digital asset treasuries, abbreviated as DATs, purchased approximately 42,000 BTC from mid-November to mid-December, bringing their total holdings to about 1.09 million BTC. This acquisition represents the strongest monthly accumulation since an increase of more than 128,000 BTC from mid-July to mid-August 2025. VanEck suggests that many DATs might finance their BTC purchases through preferred stock sales instead of common stock issuance in the future.