VanEck: Recent Bitcoin Miner "Capitulation" May Signal a Bottom is Near

BlockBeats News, December 23, according to Cointelegraph, VanEck analysts stated that in the month ending December 15, the total bitcoin network hashrate decreased by 4%. This could be bullish for bitcoin prices in the coming months, as miner capitulation has historically been seen as a contrarian bullish indicator.

Matt Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush noted in a report released on Monday: "When hashrate declines persist for a longer period, the probability of positive future returns is higher, and the gains are often larger."

They also stated that since 2014, when the bitcoin network hashrate declined over the previous 30 days, the probability of positive 90-day forward returns was 65%; while in periods of rising hashrate, this ratio was only 54%. This pattern also holds over longer timeframes: when the hashrate growth rate was negative over the previous 90 days, the probability of bitcoin price increases over the subsequent 180 days reached 77%, with an average gain of about 72%; whereas during periods of hashrate growth, the probability of positive 180-day returns was only 61%.