Recently, the bitcoin market has once again become the focus of attention for investors and analysts. On December 21, several authoritative figures and institutions released their expectations and analyses regarding bitcoin price trends, revealing the complex situation of the current market. Especially under the influence of the Federal Reserve's RMP policy, bitcoin price expectations have experienced dramatic fluctuations, with this change acting as a catalyst for a market turning point.
Clash of Opinions
There are clear differences among various parties regarding the future development of bitcoin. The view of former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes is particularly noteworthy; he believes that the Federal Reserve's RMP policy is essentially a disguised form of QE, which will lead to fiat currency depreciation and thus drive bitcoin prices to soar. His forecast indicates that in the short term, bitcoin will fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000, but in the long term, it has the potential to rise to $124,000 to $200,000, and may even reach its peak in March 2026.
In contrast, the resignation of U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has added uncertainty to market sentiment. Lummis played a significant role in promoting the legalization of crypto assets, and her departure is widely interpreted as a negative signal for market regulation and policy prospects. In response, analyst Eswar S. Prasad warned that the continued growth of stablecoins may further strengthen the dominance of the U.S. dollar, leading to an even greater concentration of financial power.
Vulnerabilities and Challenges
Bitcoin's strong momentum also faces new challenges, especially from the field of cybersecurity. A report by Chainalysis mentioned that in 2025, a total of $2.02 billions worth of crypto assets were stolen, with several major cyberattacks—including on the Bybit exchange—causing serious concerns about security in the market. This phenomenon is not accidental; historical data shows that attacks by North Korean hackers targeting centralized exchanges are increasing, with the amount stolen rising by 51% compared to 2024.
The community has shown a high degree of vigilance in response, and many investors are taking a cautious stance on bitcoin's future. Under the influence of a series of negative news, market sentiment is undergoing subtle changes, with FOMO (fear of missing out) gradually being suppressed, and investors beginning to consider potential risks and adjust their strategies.
Connection with Macroeconomics
The current market volatility is not an isolated event, but is highly related to the macroeconomic background. The Federal Reserve's RMP mechanism aims to manage reserves by injecting liquidity through the purchase of short-term Treasury bills, attempting to stimulate economic growth and the real estate market. Although this move may push up the prices of assets such as bitcoin in the short term, its long-term impact is difficult to predict.
Compared to traditional finance, the progress of blockchain technology continues to challenge centralized infrastructure. Lomesh Dutta, Vice President of Growth at Dfinity, mentioned that the rise of blockchain technology and no-code tools is gradually replacing traditional cloud services such as AWS, which could change the dynamics of cybersecurity. At the same time, the true potential of blockchain technology lies in its ability to provide more secure and tamper-proof infrastructure, breaking the existing centralized pattern.
The Nature of the Power Struggle
Behind the current market turbulence actually lies a more complex power struggle. The crypto market is facing a contest between old forces and a new order, with the risks of centralized finance and the opportunities of decentralization intertwined. On this new battlefield, different participants are trying to protect their own interests in their own ways, and this process will inevitably affect the future of bitcoin and the entire crypto market.
When facing dramatic market fluctuations, investors need to pay attention to the gains and losses of key technical levels in the short term. The current uncertainty may be a warning sign, and a potential opportunity to support future prices is brewing. Amid the frenzy of price surges, potential opportunities for strategic positioning still exist.
The future of bitcoin remains shrouded in heavy fog, and investors need to stay vigilant at all times, deeply interpreting the dynamics and trends behind the market. As 2026 approaches, how the contest among various forces will affect the direction of bitcoin will determine the future ecological niche of the crypto world.
