Will the Bitcoin Cycle Survive American Monetary Policy?

Since its beginnings, bitcoin followed an almost perfect mechanism. Every four years, the halving came to restart the engine, like a metronome. But times change. In 2025, mathematical gravity is no longer enough. The cycles are distorted, slowed down, sometimes reversed. The price of BTC no longer reacts only to halving or narratives. It is sucked into another dimension: that of interest rates, the Fed, and global monetary policy. Bitcoin has grown, and now it lives in the same world as other risky assets.

Halving or Elections: Who Really Holds the Bitcoin Wheel?

For a long time, the crypto industry loved the idea of a “ 4-year cycle “. Simple, reassuring. But Markus Thielen (10X Research) throws a stone in the pond :

It’s not the halving that dictates the pace, but rather the midterm elections. They generally coincide with a consolidation period for stock markets. When looking at Bitcoin peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021, they all fall in the fourth quarter. That fits much better than halving dates, which themselves move.

He notes that peaks have always occurred at year-end: December 2013, December 2017, November 2021. And today?

With a confused Fed, unclear economic policy, and internal divisions, the machine is stuck. Jerome Powell may multiply speeches, but markets hear nothing clear. Result: Bitcoin has exited its bullish channel started in 2023. Investors no longer know which saint to pray to.

And this uncertainty spares no other cryptos. In a market dominated by macro uncertainty, altcoins suffer even more. Ethereum stalls, others fade away. Thielen warns that without a resurgence of inflows, the crypto market will not rebound. 

Bitcoin, Rates, and Confusion: The Market Seeks a Conductor

The first market move after a Fed announcement is always the wrong one, some traders believe. On the day of the last Fed decision, Bitcoin jumped to 94,000 dollars… before falling back to 89,000.

The cause? A Jerome Powell press conference judged ambiguous: he starts neutral, ends dovish, but the official message remains hawkish. In short, nothing decisive. Thielen’s analysis is ruthless: 

Powell started with a balanced view. But over the course of the press conference, he became increasingly dovish, which confused the markets. He constantly changes his tone. 

Meanwhile, flows into Bitcoin ETFs are slowing. In December 2023, 34 billion dollars rushed into crypto products. In 2025, it’s barely 22 billion. Worse: on-chain flows are now negative. Institutions keep their distance. And CEXs like Coinbase or Binance see their activity drop due to lack of volume.

In this context, crypto cycles can no longer be read as before. Even supporters of the supercycle, like Tom Lee, struggle to convince. He argues that a recovery in the ISM (manufacturing activity index) could restart Bitcoin. But Thielen is skeptical: the economy is no longer industrial. The ISM no longer reflects anything. 

CEX, IPO, and Altcoins: Towards Another Crypto Cycle?

While the Bitcoin cycle stalls, another engine emerges: the stock markets. Crypto IPOs, from Circle to Robinhood, grab attention. Even Korean investors, long fond of altcoins, turn to American crypto stocks. Thielen cites a revealing figure: at one point, crypto volume in Korea exceeded that of all local stocks combined by 50%.

But this shift is logical. Institutional money no longer wants token 733 on CoinMarketCap. It wants regulation, audited balance sheets, liquidity. Result: altcoins outside of Ethereum and BNB are going through a desert crossing. And even so, BNB only manages thanks to its ecosystem, yields, and internal momentum.

Crypto cycles are therefore mutating. They are not dead, but they change shape. And as Thielen says: “As long as there are no net inflows, the crypto market will go nowhere.”

5 Key Points to Remember About BTC and Monetary Policy

• Current Bitcoin Price : 89,005 dollars, down after an attempt to rise to 94,000;
• Crypto ETFs: 34 billion $ inflows in December 2023, only 22 billion $ in 2025;
• First negative flows on the Bitcoin blockchain since August 2023;
• Crypto volume in Korea: 25 billion $ in one day, versus 15 billion $ for the entire stock exchange;
• 59 billion $ of unlocks planned in altcoins in 2025, a real brake on recovery.

One last element not to underestimate in this equation: the historical holders of Bitcoin . These “hodlers” who refuse to sell, even at peaks, limit the available liquidity. Their inertia could slow price movements, especially in an already tense market. Understanding their role thus becomes crucial to anticipate the next phase of the cycle.