Analysis: Bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billions will expire on December 26, potentially leading to concentrated liquidation and repricing of risk exposure at year-end.

According to ChainCatcher, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that bitcoin options with a notional value of approximately $23.8 billion will expire on December 26, covering quarterly options, annual options, and a large number of structured products. This means that the BTC derivatives market will experience a "concentrated clearing and repricing of risk exposure" at the end of the year. Prices may be structurally constrained before expiry, but uncertainty will increase after expiration.

From the data, there is a large accumulation of OI at the two positions closest to the current BTC spot price: $85,000 Put: 14,674 BTC; $100,000 Call: 18,116 BTC. In terms of scale, this is not retail behavior, but rather large-scale long-term capital, most likely ETF hedging, BTC treasury companies, large family offices, and other institutions that hold large amounts of BTC spot for the long term.

The Put at the $85,000 strike price is initiated by the buyer, reflecting a strong demand for downside risk hedging at this level. Similarly, the large accumulation of Call OI at the $100,000 strike price does not essentially mean "the market is bullish to this level," but rather that long-term capital is willing to give up upside potential above this price in exchange for current certainty of cash flow and overall risk control.

By buying Puts below and selling Calls above, the BTC return distribution is compressed within a manageable range. With OI already highly established, this $85,000–$100,000 options corridor will have a structural impact on BTC prices before December 26, creating "implicit resistance above, passive buffering below, and fluctuations within the middle range."