Key Notes
- Strategy is in talks with MSCI over whether the firm still fits its equity index rules.
- Analysts suggest a potential exclusion could trigger billions in forced outflows.
- Strategy’s value now sits below the worth of its massive BTC reserve.
Strategy is in discussions with global index provider MSCI over whether the company should remain in several major benchmarks. The talks, first reported by Reuters , come ahead of MSCI’s scheduled announcement on Jan. 15.
MSCI’s review follows a growing debate on whether firms holding digital reserves still qualify as operating companies, or whether they function more like large investment vehicles.
A JPMorgan analysis in November warned that if MSCI, and eventually other providers, remove Strategy, passive funds could be forced to sell billions of dollars’ worth of shares. The bank estimated potential outflows as high as $8.8 billion.
However, Strategy’s executive chairman and popular Bitcoin BTC $93 005 24h volatility: 6.4% Market cap: $1.86 T Vol. 24h: $90.78 B proponent, Michael Saylor, said he is “unsure” whether that figure is accurate.
Index Decision Looms
MSCI has formally proposed excluding companies whose crypto reserves account for half or more of total assets. The group argues that such firms resemble holding vehicles, and may no longer fit the purpose of its global equity benchmarks.
If the policy takes effect in February 2026 as planned, it could trigger a major sell-off among passive funds, particularly for large treasury-focused companies like Strategy.
Strategy Stock Struggles
Strategy’s stock MSTR has recently seen a challenging period as Bitcoin dropped to as low as $85,000 on December 1. The stock price has fallen more than 37% this year and over 50% since crypto prices peaked in October.
Strategy currently holds around 650,000 units of the world’s top crypto token BTC, valued at over $60 billion at the time of writing. Yet its own market capitalisation has slumped below $50 billion, meaning the firm is now valued below the assets on its balance sheet.
That valuation mismatch has fueled speculation about possible forced BTC sales. Strategy’s CEO Phong Le recently acknowledged, for the first time in years, that the company could sell reserves under extreme conditions.
The company has already begun preparing for risks, building a $1.44 billion cash buffer for interest payments and dividends.
Strategy’s executive chairman said the firm’s stock is “highly volatile” because it is effectively leveraged to BTC it holds. “If it drops 30% or 40%, the stock will fall even more,” he told Reuters recently.
Despite these struggles, Strategy’s stock saw a brief bounce this week, rising nearly 6% on Dec. 3 as BTC briefly touched $93,000 .
