ZEC drops 20.91% in a week as surging retail activity heats up the futures market

Zcash (ZEC) Market Update: Volatility and Key Trends

On November 28, 2025, Zcash (ZEC) experienced a modest 0.28% increase over the previous 24 hours, bringing its price to $448.73. Despite this short-term uptick, the cryptocurrency has declined by 20.91% in the past week. Over the last month, ZEC has gained 11.98%, and its value has soared by 705.21% over the past year. These dramatic fluctuations highlight the ongoing uncertainty surrounding this privacy-oriented digital asset, influenced by changing market demand and speculative trading in derivatives.

Declining Interest in Shielded Pools

Activity within ZEC’s shielded pools, which are central to its privacy features, has stagnated. The Orchard pool, which previously saw significant growth during ZEC’s rally, has remained steady at 4.21 million tokens since November 4. This plateau suggests that the previously strong relationship between supply and demand may be weakening. If this trend continues, it could further diminish the perceived scarcity of shielded ZEC, potentially putting downward pressure on the price.

Additionally, the older Sapling pool is contracting as users transfer funds to unshielded accounts. This shift indicates that investors may be prioritizing liquidity over privacy, which could undermine ZEC’s position in the privacy coin sector if the trend persists.

Retail Speculation Raises Correction Concerns

There has been a notable surge in retail participation in both the futures and spot markets for ZEC. Data from CryptoQuant points to overcrowding in these markets, a pattern that has often preceded sharp corrections in the crypto industry. For example, similar spikes in retail activity were observed before the significant downturns in 2021.

According to Coinsights, open interest in ZEC futures fell by 7.71% in the last day, dropping to $977.39 million. This reduction may reflect traders scaling back their positions or a lack of confidence in the current price trend. Historically, a sharp decrease in futures activity can signal uncertainty or the potential for a bearish move.

Technical Analysis: Approaching a Key Support Zone

Technically, Zcash is trading below the important $500 threshold and is nearing its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $436. Should ZEC fail to maintain this support, analysts warn that the price could decline by up to 30%. The 50-day EMA is widely regarded as a crucial indicator for short- to mid-term trends, and a break below this level could confirm a deeper correction is underway.

In summary, the combination of waning shielded pool activity and excessive retail speculation highlights the vulnerability of ZEC’s current price. While the asset’s impressive monthly and yearly gains demonstrate strong long-term growth, the recent downturn serves as a reminder of the risks associated with short-term speculative trading overshadowing fundamental value.