All I Want For Christmas Is a Bitcoin Rally?

The crypto world is biting its nails as Bitcoin teeters on the edge of its famed “Santa Claus rally.”

This year’s festive season has traders watching for signs that a price pump could grace December, fueled by that classic holiday optimism and year-end magic.

The bulls made a comeback

Renowned analyst Robert Ruszale was waving the bullish flag earlier this month, expecting a bounce off Bitcoin’s 50-week Exponential Moving Average, usually a trusty support line.

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His forecast aimed at a December rally, yet alas, the market dipped lower, and Ruszale had to own up to his misstep.

Despite that, the bulls made a brave comeback, nudging BTC over $85K just ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.

But now analysts shared that options market data from Deribit Insights points out a big player, maybe a fund or miner, had been selling bearish call options and buying puts to shield assets during the price drop.

Now, this giant has gone silent, hinting they might expect the worst is behind.

Yet, caution lingers as heavy put-buying keeps the “put skew” elevated, signaling some nerves about downside risks.

Global credit crunch

On the flip side, options volume teases bullish bets targeting $90K and even the dream $100K, while defensive hedges wait near $84K and $70K. So, the market’s hedging its bets like cautious holiday shoppers.

Fellow expert Greg Magadini from Amberdata chips in with a macro twist, linking Bitcoin’s sluggishness to U.S. tech weaknesses, themselves triggered by Japan’s bond yield worries, a classic global credit crunch domino effect.

But on the other hand, he tempers fears, noting Japan’s sky-high debt likely means short-term rates won’t jump, and the upcoming U.S. Fed move remains a coin-flip, creating a hopeful backdrop.

Santa brings gifts this year?

Historically, the “Santa Claus rally” is a stock market quirk where prices rise in the last trading days of December into early January.

An 80-year-old concept, it’s been observed in crypto too, showing up in 8 of the last 10 years between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2 with gains ranging from modest bumps to double-digit boons.

But market experts say don’t bet the farm just yet, crypto’s volatility means the rally’s arrival is never guaranteed.

So, the tale of whether Bitcoin’s Santa brings gifts this year isn’t decided yet. December could get festive, or frustrating for crypto fans craving that holiday cheer.