Genius Sports Sees Revenue Growth Despite Lower Profits; Analysts Maintain $15 Price Target

Analysts See Potential

Could Hit $15 Despite Earnings Shortfall, as Outperform Rating Stands Out

Genius Sports Ltd (NYSE:GENI), known for its sports data and integrity offerings, is scheduled to announce its Q3 2025 results on November 4, 2025, according to a

, with analysts predicting a mixed outcome. Revenue for the quarter is anticipated to reach $156.27 million, with full-year sales at $645.12 million, but the company is still expected to post a loss of $-0.18 per share for 2025. This comes after a tough previous quarter, where earnings per share were reported at $-0.21—well below the consensus of $-0.01—even though revenue surpassed estimates by 0.20%.

The company’s financial path has been uneven. Over the past 90 days, revenue projections for 2025 have climbed by $24.29 million, indicating rising interest in its sports data products. On the other hand, profit forecasts have worsened, with 2025 estimates dropping by 170 basis points to $-0.18 per share, which analysts link to persistent cost and operational issues.

Even with a negative earnings outlook, analysts remain cautiously upbeat. The consensus 12-month price target is $15.00, suggesting a 33.21% increase from the current $11.26 share price. This positive sentiment is supported by a collective "Outperform" rating from 19 brokerages, averaging a recommendation score of 1.8 on a 1–5 scale, according to the preview. However, the GF Value model offers a more reserved perspective, estimating fair value at $10.45, which would be a 7.19% decrease from the current price, the preview notes.

The share price’s fluctuations reflect the ongoing struggle between revenue expansion and profitability worries. In the June 2025 quarter, Genius Sports’ stock dropped 4.50% after earnings, despite exceeding revenue projections. Analysts point out that while revenue growth is strong, turning that into steady profits remains a significant challenge.

Looking forward, the upcoming Q3 results will be crucial. Should the company manage to reduce its losses or show improvements in controlling costs, investor interest could be reignited. On the flip side, continued losses may weigh on the stock, especially since the GF Value model indicates the shares may be overvalued compared to analyst targets.

Brokerage opinions are divided between short-term optimism and longer-term caution. Although 19 firms maintain an average "Outperform" rating for Genius Sports, the gap between price targets and intrinsic value highlights the importance of careful risk evaluation.