X402: Revolution or Just Another Narrative Bubble?

Recently, the crypto market has been completely ignited by "AI Agent" and the "X402 Protocol." In just a few days, following $PING, the PayAI Network ($PAYAI) token within the Solana ecosystem surged by 1900%, with the token price soaring from $0.004 to $0.06. Backed by Coinbase, Solana, Cloudflare, and numerous KOLs, coupled with listings on exchanges such as BitMart, it has become the hottest token in the AI sector, with its market cap surpassing $60 million; meanwhile, the total market cap of the entire x402 ecosystem has exceeded $800 million on CoinGecko.

X402: An Open Protocol Enabling Machines to "Learn to Pay"

Unlike ordinary "AI tokens," x402 is not a single token, but an Open Payment Protocol.
Its name comes from the HTTP status code "402 – Payment Required," symbolizing the realization of native internet payments.

x402 allows AI Agents or software clients to make cross-chain payments directly with stablecoins such as USDC, without the need for accounts or API keys, enabling autonomous machine-to-machine (M2M) settlement.
Simply put, AI agents can now not only "think" and "execute," but for the first time, also have the ability to "pay."

In September 2025, Coinbase and Cloudflare jointly launched the X402 Foundation, officially kicking off the protocol's ecosystem development. Shortly after, venture capital giant a16z cited a Gartner forecast in its annual report:

"By 2030, machine customers will directly participate in or influence up to $30 trillion in transactions."

a16z believes that x402 will become the financial backbone of this "machine economy," supporting AI agents in completing micropayments, API settlements, data calls, and other automated economic activities.

Expert Debate: Hidden Gem or Bubble?

On the other side of the hype, industry insiders have begun to diverge, with the community engaging in a public debate over whether X402 is a "revolution" or a "bubble."

Optimists: A Payment Revolution for the AI Internet

Ryan Sean Adams (@RyanSAdams, 271K followers) stated:

The rise of x402 marks a fundamental shift in the internet business model—from the attention economy of the "social internet" to the microtransaction economy of the "AI internet." He pointed out that AI agents will purchase AI services through a native internet micropayment system, executed on Ethereum as the underlying layer, "this is the true beginning of the internet economy's disintermediation."

S4mmyEth (@S4mmyEth, 50K followers) noted:

x402 is the key protocol for agents to make on-chain payments, bringing the internet back to what it should be—"enabling payments via HTTPS." He cited a16z's 2025 report, stating that by 2030, machine customers will directly participate in or influence $30 trillion in transactions, "x402 is the payment backbone of this era."

He believes that x402 enables the internet to realize "payment as the underlying language" for the first time, which will drive the formation of the machine economy.

0xTechBuilder (@0xTechBuilder, 80K followers):

The significance of x402 lies in "enabling services to pay for services." In the past, API calls relied on manual settlement or centralized billing platforms, but x402's automatic payment mechanism allows machines to settle bills themselves, "this is the true beginning of a closed-loop Web3 business model."

Crypto KOL @ghost93_x stated:

My core views on x402 are:

1. The current market situation is worrying: The vast majority of tokens emerging now are simply riding the market hype and are essentially copycat projects.

2. Participants are irrational: Most participants do not conduct in-depth research, blindly chasing price increases while pretending to care about and understand the technology on social media.

3. The industry environment is harsh: 99.9% of the crypto industry is filled with scams.

4. However, x402 is an exception: Amid this "crypto agent" quagmire, x402 is currently the most authentic and practical technology to emerge.

Please be sure to reread and understand point 4.

Cautious Camp: FOMO-Driven High-Risk Narrative

aixbt_agent (@aixbt_agent, 470K followers) reminds investors:

Although the x402 narrative is reasonable, prices have already been pushed up by FOMO sentiment. He suggests investors wait for a pullback to the $0.015–$0.02 range and warns that most projects are merely "shell projects for speculation" and are not truly involved in protocol development.

gregoffchain (@gregoffchain) bluntly stated:

Almost all narrative-driven tokens eventually go to zero. x402 is an important technological advancement, but most of its surrounding tokens lack real value. "From the metaverse to AI, to Agent, every cycle repeats the same script: real technological signals → market overinterpretation → speculative capital influx → price correction."

ChainLinkAlpha (@ChainLinkAlpha, 60K followers) pointed out, based on on-chain data,

The issuance speed of x402-related tokens has far outpaced the pace of ecosystem adoption, "without sustained real demand, the narrative cannot support the price."

Bubble and Future: Can the Narrative Be Realized?

Despite the controversy, there is a basic consensus: x402 represents a noteworthy technological direction in exploring AI payments and the machine economy.

At the same time, excessive speculation and immature technology are risks that cannot be ignored. As market observers have pointed out: "The faster the price rises, the more severe the correction may be."

The long-term value of x402 does not depend on market hype, but on real-world application. Only when AI can autonomously complete payments and data services can be billed by usage, will the initial narrative truly become reality.

Author: Seed.eth