Ethereum’s Mixed Recovery Signals
Ethereum has managed to bounce back after hitting a seven-week low, which is certainly some relief for investors. The cryptocurrency is currently trading around $4,187, just below the $4,222 resistance level. This recovery shows there’s still some buyer interest at these support levels, but honestly, the broader market sentiment remains pretty cautious.
I think what’s interesting here is that while the price has recovered somewhat, the underlying network metrics tell a different story. New Ethereum addresses have actually dropped to a two-month low, which suggests weaker network growth. When new addresses decline like this, it usually means potential investors are holding back, waiting for clearer recovery signals before committing fresh capital.
Holder Behavior Shows Resilience
There’s some positive data in the HODL waves though. The supply held by one to three-month holders has increased by about 3% over the last month, going from 8.7% to 11.4%. This tells me that existing holders aren’t panicking – they’re riding out the volatility rather than contributing to selling pressure.
This kind of behavior is actually quite important for Ethereum’s stability. When short-term holders mature into longer-term positions, it reduces those rapid sell-offs that can really damage price momentum. It creates a sort of foundation that could help Ethereum withstand bearish pressure while waiting for new capital to flow in.
Critical Price Levels Ahead
Looking at the technical picture, Ethereum needs to break above $4,222 to really flip this level into support. If it can do that, we might see some extended gains. But honestly, getting above $4,500 seems like it would be quite difficult without fresh inflows of capital.
The market feels a bit rangebound right now, with limited liquidity and investor hesitation keeping things contained. It’s like everyone’s waiting for stronger catalysts to emerge before making bigger moves.
On the downside, if Ethereum fails to maintain support, we could see it slip through $4,074 and potentially retest that $3,872 low again. That would definitely invalidate the current bullish outlook and probably trigger more selling pressure.
What strikes me is the contrast between the price recovery and the network metrics. The price has bounced, but the decline in new addresses suggests the foundation might not be as strong as the surface-level price action indicates. It’s one of those situations where you have to look beyond just the price charts to understand what’s really happening.
