Bitcoin Approaches Cycle Top Amid Conflicting Technical Indicators and Increased Profit-Taking

According to on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run has now reached a phase that historically signals the latter stages of the cycle. Patterns in profit-taking and capital movement are closely resembling those seen at the height of previous cycles between 2015–2018 and 2018–2022. The amount of

in circulation has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit threshold for 273 days in a row, making it the second-longest streak after the 335-day run during the 2015–2018 cycle. Long-term holders (LTHs) have already locked in more profits than in all but one past cycle, indicating growing selling pressure. Nevertheless, newer and short-term investors are continuing to buy, which is helping to counterbalance some of the selling.

Additional on-chain metrics reinforce the current market stance. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is now at 0.987, showing that short-term holders are selling at a loss—a trend often linked to local price bottoms in the past. Broader measures such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score and Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicate that the market has not yet topped out. For example, the NUPL ratio reveals that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is increasing more rapidly than profit-taking, a sign of overheating that has historically presented opportunities for strategic profit realization.

The Federal Reserve’s recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points has sent mixed signals for Bitcoin. While lower rates usually benefit riskier assets, the immediate response from the crypto market was subdued, with Bitcoin struggling to stay above $115,000 after the announcement. Experts point out that although the rate cut and dovish policy could support Bitcoin over the long term, short-term volatility is likely as markets absorb the news. The Fed’s move also comes amid political pressure, with President Donald Trump pushing for deeper cuts to boost the economy. Meanwhile, technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) point to weakening momentum, with the RSI below 50 and the MACD showing a mildly bearish trend.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen forecasts that Bitcoin could reach its cycle peak within the next three months, consistent with previous cycles where tops typically occurred in the fourth quarter following a halving year. He observes that the current cycle is tracking previous patterns, with a local high in August, a dip in September, and the September low possibly already established. Cowen also expects altcoins to surge after Bitcoin’s bull run ends, a trend seen in earlier cycles.

Technical analysis points to a pivotal moment for Bitcoin. The weekly chart shows a rising wedge—a bearish reversal formation—with potential downside targets at $114,400 and $113,200 if support fails. On the other hand, a confirmed close above $116,900 could indicate a bullish continuation toward $126,700, based on the cup-and-handle pattern. The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $109,500 and the 200-day EMA at $105,300 are important support levels to monitor.

Opinions among traders are split regarding the short-term direction. Some see the current pullback as a chance to buy, while others warn against taking on too much risk given the high volatility and liquidity concentrations between $108,000 and $112,000. The QuantumResearch On-chain Z-score, which blends NUPL, SOPR, and MVRV into a single metric, also points to overbought conditions, with dynamic thresholds suggesting caution is warranted.

In conclusion, Bitcoin’s future path will depend on a mix of macroeconomic trends, technical signals, and investor sentiment. While late-cycle dynamics and increased profit-taking hint at a possible top in the near future, reaching a new all-time high will require holding key support levels and adapting to the Fed’s policy direction.

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