Prediction markets are on track to reach a $1 trillion milestone as Kalshi and Polymarket compete for the top position

According to data from Dune Analytics, Kalshi has reinforced its leadership in the prediction market industry, accounting for 62% of the total trading volume between September 11 and 17, 2025. In that week, the CFTC-approved platform handled more than $500 million in trades, surpassing Polymarket’s $430 million. Kalshi also posted a higher average open interest at $189 million, compared to Polymarket’s $164 million, indicating different trading patterns among users. The open interest-to-volume ratio was 0.29 for Kalshi and 0.38 for Polymarket, suggesting that Kalshi’s trades turn over more quickly, while Polymarket users tend to hold positions for longer periods, sometimes weeks or months title8 [ 5 ].

Polymarket, on the other hand, is actively defending its position. The platform has launched markets with a 4% yield to attract participants, especially in popular categories like Federal Reserve policy and U.S. election predictions. For example, a market speculating on a Fed rate cut of over 50 basis points by October offers a 4% yield, and another focused on U.S. election results similarly draws attention to the platform title1 [ 1 ]. These products are designed to appeal to those seeking both predictive insights and attractive returns, a tactic Polymarket has strengthened through partnerships, such as its alliance with social investing platform Stocktwits. This collaboration enables markets based on company earnings, giving shareholders a way to manage risk and analysts a tool to measure market sentiment in real time title8 [ 5 ].

Kalshi’s recent growth is partly due to its bold move into sports betting, which now makes up more than 70% of its trading activity. Its regulated status in the U.S., along with partnerships like its integration with Robinhood and

, has contributed to its expansion. Betting markets for NFL and college football, as well as proposition bets on specific game events, have increased user participation. Experts point out that Kalshi’s ability to legally offer betting services across all 50 states—through the App Store—gives it a significant advantage over Polymarket, which mainly serves international users and operates through cryptocurrency access.

Polymarket’s recent purchase of QCX, a derivatives exchange regulated by the CFTC, marks a strategic effort to re-enter the U.S. market and challenge Kalshi’s regulatory edge. The $112 million deal, completed in July 2025, is set to simplify Polymarket’s compliance process and broaden its offerings for American investors title8 [ 5 ]. The platform’s emphasis on longer-term markets—such as those tracking political developments or cryptocurrency prices—caters to a unique user base, even as it contends with Kalshi’s rapid trading approach title8 [ 5 ].

The rivalry between these two platforms reflects larger shifts in the prediction market landscape. Jack Such from Kalshi contends that event contracts offer a “maximally direct way to get exposure to events affecting businesses, people, and economies,” and he believes the industry could grow into a $1 trillion asset class title8 [ 5 ]. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s focus on extended positions and its recent valuation of $9–$10 billion demonstrate its confidence in securing a specialized market segment, despite Kalshi’s current lead.

As both companies compete for dominance, their differing strategies reveal contrasting visions for the future of prediction markets. Kalshi’s emphasis on regulatory adherence and sports betting aligns it with traditional financial markets, while Polymarket’s blockchain-driven, international approach appeals to a wider, crypto-focused audience. The outcome of this competition will likely influence how prediction markets develop as tools for financial risk management, political analysis, and more title8 [ 5 ].