Kaspa (KAS) Faces a Turning Point: Upward Rebound or Further Decline?

Kaspa (KAS) has reached a pivotal moment as its price challenges significant support levels after tumbling from an August peak of $0.107 to a recent trough at $0.07968. Both technical analysis and blockchain metrics indicate that a rebound could be possible, even though the overall outlook remains bearish over the long term. The recent price behaviour has captured the interest of both traders and investors, with technical signals appearing mixed across different timeframes.

On the 4-hour chart, KAS has developed a double bottom formation, often seen as a signal of a potential bullish reversal after dropping to a 24-hour low of $0.07968. This setup, which was initially spotted on May 30 and confirmed by a subsequent bounce on June 3, hints at a short-term upswing. Should KAS surpass the neckline at $0.092, analysts foresee a possible push toward $0.10 — marking a 20% rise from the neckline and a 30% jump from its current price. The reliability of this formation depends on strong trading volume and ongoing momentum above this point.

However, long-range indicators still point to a bearish trend. The weekly chart reflects seven straight weeks of downward candles, with KAS slipping below a longstanding ascending channel. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are trending lower, with RSI under 50 and MACD in negative territory, reinforcing a negative outlook. If the present support at $0.082 is breached, the next support level is around $0.050, which would indicate a more severe drop.

Analysis of on-chain data adds another layer of complexity. Despite declining prices, Kaspa’s hash rate has climbed to 1.41 exa hashes — its highest in 330 days — showing increased activity from miners. This growing hash rate, while prices fall, may signal the asset is undervalued, though it is not a guarantee of a price reversal. Additionally, the project’s upcoming third anniversary on November 8 could spur renewed community engagement, a common phenomenon for milestone events in crypto.

In the short term, bullish signals include a “Power of 3” structure seen on the 4-hour timeframe, involving stages of accumulation, manipulation, and expansion. If KAS can reclaim the $0.079 area, it may enter an expansion phase. Breaking decisively above $0.092 would confirm this setup, with projections pointing to a target of $0.1130 — a potential 54% increase from current prices. Conversely, a drop below $0.07141 would negate this scenario and could lead to further declines.

There is ongoing debate among market participants regarding KAS’s immediate outlook. While short-term indicators suggest a possible relief rally, the larger trend remains negative unless KAS can re-enter its former ascending channel. Experts warn that any upward move could be short-lived, especially if broader economic or geopolitical factors reignite risk aversion in the market.

The recent fall in KAS’s price has also altered its trading dynamics. Although trading volume remains consistent, the strength of buying interest is weaker than during past rallies. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) failed to act as support during the latest decline, further diminishing hopes for a sustained uptrend. Additionally, a recent bullish crossover in the MACD has lost its significance due to the price’s inability to hold above key resistance levels.

To sum up, Kaspa’s price sits at a turning point. Bullish chart formations on shorter timeframes and increased miner involvement suggest a possible rebound, but persistent bearish structure on the weekly chart and weak momentum indicators urge caution. Traders will be closely watching the $0.082 and $0.092 levels, as movements around these points are likely to determine KAS’s short-term direction. For now, the market remains cautious, awaiting clearer signals before committing to a trend.