Polymarket prices Donald Trump's resignation below 1%

• Polymarket contracts indicate low chance of Trump resigning
• Cryptocurrency markets move millions with political rumors
• Online speculation swirls around the president's health

Polymarket contracts indicate less than a 1% chance that President Donald Trump will resign on Tuesday, even after confirmation of a announcement in the Oval Office scheduled for 14 p.m. (Washington time). The anticipation surrounding the speech was enough to generate millions in trades on the cryptocurrency-based prediction platform.

As of early afternoon on September 2, the "surrender today" market had accumulated about $1 million in trades, with odds of less than 1%. Longer-term contracts also reflect skepticism: the " Will Trump resign in 2025? ” was around 6%, while that of “ removal by the 25th Amendment in 2025 ?” appeared close to 7%.

The president's popularity remains in line with recent polls, which show a 44% approval rating and a net rating of -7,6%. An additional contract at Polymarket, linked to the aggregator Silver Bulletin by Nate Silver , priced in a 19% chance that Trump would end 2025 with an approval rating of 40% or less.

Rumors about the president's health also influenced market movements. In July, the White House announced that Trump had been diagnosed with chronic venous insufficiency, after tests ruled out deep vein thrombosis and heart problems. Despite this, earlier this week, the president was photographed playing golf in Washington, contradicting claims that he was sidelined due to frailty or even replaced by lookalikes.

Speculation even included viral rumors that Trump had only "six to eight months to live," based on informal analyses of bruises on his hands. Vice President J.D. Vance even stated in an interview that he is prepared to take office if necessary, further fueling the debate.

According to Polymarket's rules, resignation agreements are terminated only upon official announcement by December 31, 2025, regardless of the actual departure date. Removal agreements under the 25th Amendment, however, require a successful Cabinet process and ratification by two-thirds of Congress.

While rumors fuel volatility, markets continue to price Trump's departure as a low-probability event, focusing bets on short-term speculative movements and possible political developments until the end of the year.