Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin at Crossroads: Red September, Fed Moves, and Halving Weigh on Market Fate

Bitcoin's recent performance has drawn attention from investors and analysts, particularly due to the potential implications for the broader market. At the moment, Bitcoin is trading at around $108,500, and while it has seen a bullish year in 2025, with institutional buying and ETF inflows contributing to its rise to all-time highs above $120,000, the current trend is showing signs of bearish momentum. Analysts are recalibrating their Bitcoin price predictions as the market faces growing pressures [1].

In the short term, Bitcoin appears to be in a falling trend channel, which is an indication of negative development and reduced buying interest among investors. The current support level is at $101,300, while resistance sits at $110,000. The RSI is below 30, which historically is a sign that Bitcoin might be oversold and could experience a rebound. However, the RSI curve currently supports the bearish trend, and the overall short-term price prediction for Bitcoin is assessed as negative [1].

The market dynamics for Bitcoin are further complicated by the historical trend known as "Red September," a period when the cryptocurrency has seen an average loss of 3.77% over the past 11 years. This year, with a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut and key U.S. economic data expected, there is a high likelihood of increased market volatility [2]. ETF outflows amounting to $751 million suggest institutional caution, while whale wallets have reached a record high, indicating some large players are accumulating Bitcoin at lower prices [2].

Analysts are watching closely for a potential break above $112,000, which could confirm a bullish case for Bitcoin, while a drop below $110,000 might trigger a deeper correction. The 50-day and 200-day EMA levels around $110,000 and $104,000, respectively, serve as additional technical reference points. If Bitcoin maintains these levels, it could lead to a surge toward $140,000–$200,000 by year-end, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds, halving expectations, and strong on-chain conditions [3].

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is anticipated to announce a 50 basis point rate cut, which has historically been positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. Lower interest rates could make Bitcoin more attractive as an investment and an inflation hedge. The on-chain metrics for Bitcoin indicate rising tension, with the adjusted cyclical extremum index at 8.8%, signaling the market's entry into a compression zone [3].

The Bitcoin halving event in 2025 remains a focal point for the market, with on-chain metrics such as NVT and Market Value to Realized Value below cycle-top thresholds, suggesting the market is not yet overheated. Long-term holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin, while exchange reserves are declining, reflecting reduced selling pressure and sustained confidence in the asset. Miner reserves remain steady at 1.805 million BTC, contrasting with past cycles where heavy selling from miners coincided with market peaks [3].

As the cryptocurrency market navigates the potential volatility of September and the anticipated Fed rate cut, investors are advised to monitor key support and resistance levels, combine technical analysis with real-time market news, and consider the broader macroeconomic landscape. The current price action for Bitcoin at around $109,180 indicates that the market is at a crossroads, with the potential for significant price movement in either direction depending on the prevailing market conditions and investor sentiment [3].

Source: [1] Bitcoin Price Predictions For September: Why BTC Could Drop Below $100,000 [2] Bitcoin Price Prediction for “Red September” 2025 [3] Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction: Analyst Sees BTC at $140,000–$200,000 by Year-End If Price Reclaims Key Support