Bitcoin's Fate Tied To RSI Support Level

Driven by euphoria and records beyond $124,000, bitcoin seemed out of reach. However, the sudden break of a major technical support, a pillar of the uptrend, disrupts this picture. False alarm or real reversal signal? The question divides analysts and investors, at a time when certainties waver and volatility returns.

A technically significant breakout

In the last week of August, bitcoin recorded a sharp drop of more than 13.75 % from its historic peak above $124,000 , thus breaking a multi-year uptrend line that had supported its rally for over two years.

This technical break revived fears of a market reversal among many investors, especially since the RSI (Relative Strength Index), although still in the support zone, also seems under pressure. Historically, it has been the simultaneous loss of the parabolic curve and the RSI that preceded bitcoin’s worst corrections.

Here are the key facts mentioned in the analysis :

• In 2013, bitcoin fell from $1,150 to $150, a drop of -85 %, after losing its parabolic and RSI supports simultaneously ;

• In 2017, a similar dynamic caused a drop from $20,000 to $3,100, or -84 % ;

• In 2021, the bursting of the bubble led to a fall from $69,000 to $15,500, equivalent to -77 %.

The analyst reminds that if the RSI also breaks its support, bitcoin could plunge toward the bi-weekly 50-period exponential moving average (EMA-50-2W), currently around $80,000.

No technical signal yet rules out this scenario. However, at this stage, the market enters a critical testing phase, where any break could accelerate the corrective momentum.

A deliberate false breakout to shake up the markets?

For several leading analysts, this breakout could still be a trap. This is notably the thesis defended by BitBull, which describes the current situation as probable market manipulation aimed at scaring overly nervous investors.

“Even a wick of capitulation below $100,000 would correspond to bitcoin’s historical behavior, which consists of ejecting weak hands before a strong rebound”, he said. In his view, this drop could thus be interpreted as an accumulation opportunity rather than a cycle end signal.

This interpretation is shared by analyst SuperBro, who relies on the Pi Cycle Top model, known for correctly identifying the peaks of the 2013, 2017, and 2021 bull cycles. This model is based on the crossing of two moving averages: the 111SMA (simple moving average over 111 days) and twice the 350SMA.

According to SuperBro, “no Pi Cycle crossover has yet occurred, which indicates the cycle peak has not yet been reached”. He concludes that bitcoin could climb to $280,000 before entering a true reversal phase. In his view, the current $80,000 to $100,000 zone is therefore a strategic reload zone, not a red alert.

Even though the Pi Cycle Top has not yet given a peak signal, it does not exclude intermediate correction phases. Moreover, the current market structure is influenced by macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical factors that are not included in technical models.

If the RSI breaks its support line, a new bearish sequence could be triggered quickly, invalidating the most bullish short-term scenarios. Conversely, a quick rebound above $114,000 , a level identified as critical by several traders, could invalidate this false breakout and restore BTC to its long-term uptrend.