Bitcoin Futures Momentum Hits Neutral as Leverage Surges, Correlation With S&P 500 Climbs

The shift signals a slowdown in futures market strength, based on open interest, funding rates, and taker order imbalances, according to CryptoQuant analysts.

In August, the Bitcoin Futures Power index dropped to the zero mark after a series of positive values that previously accompanied BTC growth. This reflects a slowdown in momentum in the futures market, which takes into account the combined influence of open interest, funding… pic.twitter.com/71U9hCMv6m

— Axel 💎🙌 Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 13, 2025

With BTC trading near its all-time high, the neutral reading raises the risk of the index turning negative, a move that has historically preceded market corrections. At the same time, the 30-day change in the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Bitcoin futures has spiked to its highest level in five years, surpassing the +0.4 threshold previously seen during periods of excessive leverage and market fragility. This surge points to a wave of highly leveraged positions building up while prices remain elevated, heightening the potential for sharp liquidations.

On-chain metrics show BTC’s Z-Score at +1.5 standard deviations above its one-year average — strong but below the +2.5 “overheating” zone. The Adjusted Price-to-Demand (APD) ratio remains negative at −1.5, indicating that price gains are still outpacing on-chain activity, though the gap is narrowing. Analysts note that network activity would need to catch up with price, or price would need to cool, to reach a healthier equilibrium.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 has surged to 80%, meaning macro factors such as interest rate expectations, liquidity shifts, and broader risk sentiment are feeding directly into crypto price action. While the current correlation spike is based on a one-week rolling window and is unlikely to persist long-term, it suggests that equity market moves will be a key driver of BTC performance in the coming weeks.

At the same time, Bitcoin is edging toward a potential breakout as retail traders seize control of the futures market from whales. In late 2024 and early 2025, large whale-led positions fueled sharp rallies, but the current landscape is dominated by smaller retail orders. This shift, paired with Ethereum’s high leverage despite record institutional inflows, points to a market where macro trends and changing market participants are converging to set the stage for the next big move.