Bitcoin Near $107K as Holder Profits Rise and Institutional ETF Inflows Suggest Market Stability

• Bitcoin’s recent surge to $107,000 marks a significant milestone as the majority of holders return to profitability, underscoring sustained investor confidence amid market fluctuations.

• Despite approaching all-time highs, realized profits have declined, indicating a strong preference for HODLing over selling, supported by robust institutional inflows through ETFs.

• COINOTAG reports highlight that Long-Term Holder supply has reached a record 14.7 million BTC, reflecting deepening market conviction and reduced sell-side pressure.

Bitcoin rebounds to $107K with most holders profitable; HODLing dominates as realized profits fall and ETF inflows signal strong institutional support.

Bitcoin’s Resilience Evident as Market Stabilizes Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin’s price briefly dipped to $99,000 following geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran but quickly rebounded, demonstrating market resilience. The support level at $98,300, aligned with the Short-Term Holder cost basis, played a pivotal role in halting the decline. Historically, this threshold has acted as a critical support zone, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Investor behavior at this juncture reflects confidence, with holders maintaining positions rather than capitulating, reinforcing the market’s structural strength despite external uncertainties.

Profitability Metrics Reveal Strong Investor Positioning

Data from Glassnode reveals Bitcoin’s unrealized profit currently stands at approximately $1.2 trillion, derived from a market capitalization of $2.13 trillion against a realized capitalization of $955 billion. This substantial gap highlights significant capital appreciation held by investors. The MVRV ratio, indicating an average paper gain of 125%, remains healthy despite a slight retreat from the March 2024 peak of 180%. Notably, the realized capitalization’s faster growth relative to market cap suggests robust capital inflows without disproportionate price inflation, underscoring a balanced market expansion.

HODLing Behavior Strengthens as Realized Profits Decline

Despite Bitcoin nearing all-time highs, daily realized profits have decreased to around $872 million, a stark contrast to previous peaks exceeding $3 billion. This trend reflects a pronounced shift toward accumulation rather than profit-taking. The Long-Term Holder supply has surged to an all-time high of 14.7 million BTC, indicating that investors are increasingly adopting a long-term perspective. The Liveliness metric’s downward trajectory further supports this, showing reduced coin movement and heightened HODLing activity, a departure from patterns observed in earlier market cycles.

Reduced Sell-Side Pressure Among Both Short- and Long-Term Holders

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio remains low, suggesting a balanced market with diminished selling pressure. Short-Term Holders, who typically react swiftly to price changes, have curtailed distribution, reflecting a lack of compelling incentives to sell at current levels. Concurrently, Long-Term Holders have decreased spending following a brief uptick near recent highs. This behavior, corroborated by falling realized profit and loss volumes, points to sustained accumulation and confidence in Bitcoin’s future prospects, contributing to lower market volatility.

Institutional Demand and Stablecoin Dynamics Support Market Equilibrium

Stablecoins continue to underpin crypto market liquidity, with the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) hovering around 1, indicating equilibrium between Bitcoin supply and USD-backed capital. Compared to the initial breakout above $100,000, current SSR levels suggest enhanced buying power. Exchange Buying Power metrics reveal a deceleration in fresh stablecoin inflows, implying capital rotation from stablecoins into major assets like Bitcoin. Institutional demand remains robust, evidenced by U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs averaging $298 million in net inflows over seven days, reinforcing market stability and absorbing potential sell-side pressures.

Investor Sentiment Points to Consolidation Phase with Potential for Growth

Glassnode’s recent analysis emphasizes that while most holders are profitable at the $107,000 level, distribution remains subdued. The combination of record Long-Term Holder supply, declining realized profits, and strong ETF inflows suggests the market is consolidating rather than distributing. The persistent downtrend in Liveliness and muted sell-side risk indicate investor comfort with current positions. This environment favors patient accumulation and strategic positioning, setting the stage for potential future expansion contingent on macroeconomic developments or renewed demand waves.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s ascent to $107,000 accompanied by widespread profitability and strong institutional inflows highlights a market characterized by resilience and strategic HODLing. Reduced sell-side pressure and elevated Long-Term Holder supply reflect deepening conviction among investors. While realized profits have declined, this signals a preference for accumulation over liquidation, supporting price stability. Moving forward, Bitcoin’s trajectory will likely depend on broader economic factors and fresh demand catalysts, but current data underscores a market poised for measured growth and sustained investor confidence.