Bitcoin Is Approaching An Unprecedented Quarterly Record

As the second quarter comes to an end, bitcoin could well be writing a new chapter in its history. The $109,000 mark is within reach, and technical signals are converging. But behind this bullish momentum, tensions are emerging: demand deficit, liquidity games, and uncertainty over US interest rates. Could the June monthly close change everything?

Algorithmic Manipulations Create Explosive Volatility

Last weekend highlighted the intensity of ongoing manipulations in the bitcoin market.

On Sunday, an algorithmic trading bot described as “predatory” by trader Skew triggered a sharp and targeted rise, temporarily pushing the BTC/USD pair towards its highest weekly close , beyond $109,000.

This calculated operation was enough to liquidate a $12 million short position before the market corrected its gains.

“Games are clearly underway here, but we’re watching the development closely“, commented Skew on X.

Trader BitBull confirmed it was the same actor who, two weeks earlier, had caused an artificial pump followed by a rapid dump.

These manipulations, which rely on coordinated liquidity movements in the order book, have become commonplace, especially during low-volume periods like weekends.

Currently, the BTC/USD pair has filled the last gap in the CME futures market, formed during these fluctuations.

But the most worrying remains the unbalanced liquidity distribution. According to Material Indicators data, demand is concentrated between $108,000 and $110,000 , while supply extends down to $98,000.

This asymmetry creates a fertile ground for sudden movements, with an increased risk of extreme volatility in the next 24 to 48 hours.

A Record Monthly and Quarterly Close in Sight

June could very well go down in bitcoin history. Despite strong volatility fueled by macroeconomic news and market manipulations, the month is set to finish in the green, according to CoinGlass data.

Better yet, the second quarter shows an impressive increase of 29.45% , positioning this period among the strongest of the year for BTC.

To establish a record monthly close, the bitcoin price simply needs to stay above $104,630. Less than 3% from current levels, this target remains perfectly achievable if the bullish momentum holds.

In short, bulls have a comfortable margin, provided they hold firm against liquidity tensions.

Technical signals and volumes confirm this bullish potential, but the market remains sensitive to macro shocks and the strategies of large holders. Caution is therefore advised as an extended weekend approaches in the United States, where liquidity could become scarce.

A Demand Deficit Weakening the Bullish Trend

But behind the flattering figures, a worrying signal is beginning to emerge: demand is no longer keeping pace with supply.

According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, the bitcoin market is suffering from a “critical demand deficit.” Long-term holders (LTH) are reactivating their dormant holdings, while miners are massively taking profits.

As a result: the volume of BTC put into circulation exceeds that absorbed by new buyers, a configuration considered bearish.

This dynamic increases available supply, weakens market support, and may reflect a sense of exhaustion among experienced investors.

CryptoQuant’s 30-day apparent demand indicator has returned to negative territory, a first since April, when bitcoin was still trading below $75,000. This technical reversal fuels fears of a market peak already reached or imminent.

Variation of Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand – Source: CryptoQuant (screenshot).

Added to this is a key timing variable raised by analyst Rekt Capital. If bitcoin follows its usual post-halving cycle, the bull run peak could occur as early as September or October 2025. In other words, time is running out: only a few months remain before entering a more pronounced consolidation phase.