Odds of Strait of Hormuz disruption fall from 52% to 11%

Polymarket data shows a sharp decline in the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, dropping from 52% to 11% following Iran’s decision to target U.S. bases in Qatar instead of the shipping lane.

Prior to June 23, the odds of Iran disrupting the Strait had been increasing amid escalating tensions with Israel.

The spike to 52% occurred after the United States and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz using 13,000-kilogram bunker-buster bombs.

In response, the Iranian legislature quickly approved a retaliatory measure to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil shipments.

The potential blockade raised concerns over significant disruptions to global commerce and energy markets.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to pressure Iran to avoid escalation, while President Donald Trump warned of stronger retaliation if U.S. assets were targeted.

However, instead of blocking the Strait, Iran launched missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar, issuing prior warnings to Qatari officials who closed their airspace as a precaution.

Following these strikes, reports indicated that Iran signaled a willingness to de-escalate the conflict.

This shift in Iran’s approach contributed to the steep decline in Polymarket’s odds of a Strait of Hormuz blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic waterway, with any disruption potentially impacting international trade and energy supplies.

According to Polymarket, the market’s reassessment reflects a reduced immediate risk to this vital shipping route after Iran’s missile attacks focused on military targets rather than maritime infrastructure.