Altcoin ETFs Set to Reshape Cryptocurrency Market

Eric Balchunas, an expert from Bloomberg Intelligence, anticipates a significant “Altcoin ETF Summer” in the cryptocurrency market . According to Balchunas, Solana $167 (SOL) is the altcoin most likely to receive approval for a spot ETF. Bloomberg’s data indicates a 90% likelihood of approval for the Solana ETF, with Litecoin (LTC) sharing the same percentage, while XRP shows an 85% chance. Altcoin index basket ETFs also have a 90% approval probability.

The Altcoins Awaiting Approval and Their Probabilities

The latest report from Bloomberg Intelligence provides a detailed analysis of altcoin spot ETF applications submitted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). According to the data presented, Solana and Litecoin each have a 90% chance of receiving ETF approval within the year. XRP’s probability stands at 85%, Dogecoin $0.202151 (DOGE) at 80%, and both Cardano $0.72622 ( ADA ) and Polkadot (DOT) are at 75%.

Among other altcoins, HBAR has an 80% chance of approval, and Avalanche (AVAX) stands at 75%. SUI has a 60% chance, whereas Tron’s ( TRX ) approval is expected beyond 2026, so it was not evaluated for this year.

A crucial factor that significantly increases the likelihood of approval is whether the SEC regards a coin as a “commodity” and the presence of CFTC-regulated futures markets.

Institutional Applications on the Table for Altcoin ETFs

Numerous major financial institutions have filed spot ETF applications with the SEC for various altcoins. Grayscale stands out as the company with the most diverse applications, having filed for Solana, Litecoin, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche. Other notable entities like Canary and 21Shares have also caught attention with multiple applications. Bitwise, VanEck, Fidelity, Franklin, and WisdomTree are among the other applicants.

The timeline for the application processes is also clarified. The final decision date for multi-cryptocurrency index basket ETFs by the SEC is set for July 2, 2025. The last date for Litecoin is October 2, 2025, for Solana on October 10, 2025, and for XRP and Dogecoin on October 17, 2025. Cardano, Polkadot, HBAR, and Avalanche have final decision dates in October and November 2025, SUI in December 2025, and Tron in January 2026.