Macro Outlook for Next Week: U.S. May CPI Data Released on Wednesday

The important macroeconomic data release schedule for next week is as follows:

Monday 22:00, U.S. April wholesale sales month-on-month rate;

Monday 23:00, U.S. May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation;

Wednesday 20:30, U.S. May CPI data;

Wednesday 22:30, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending June 6;

Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7, U.S. May PPI;

Friday 22:00, U.S. June 1-year inflation rate preliminary estimate, U.S. June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary estimate.

The U.S. May CPI report to be released next Wednesday will test the market's optimism about rate cuts, as it may show a halt in the recent downward trend in inflation.

According to the Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model forecast, the overall CPI for May is expected to increase by 2.4% year-on-year, higher than last month's 2.3%; core CPI is expected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Analysts expect the three-month annualized inflation rate for core goods to peak in early autumn (4%-5%), slightly lower and delayed compared to the forecast before the "reciprocal tariffs" pause on May 8.