Goldman Sachs Delays Fed Rate Cut Expectation to Year-End, Lowers US Recession Probability

According to a report by Jinse Finance, Goldman Sachs has adjusted its expected timing for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to December (previously expected in July). Analysts at the firm stated: "Given the developments and the significantly eased financial conditions over the past month, we have raised our forecast for the annual growth rate of the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and reduced the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35%. Meanwhile, we have lowered our expectations for the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation path, anticipating a peak of 3.6% (previously expected at 3.8%)."