Analyst: If Trump takes action against Powell, the US economy may fall into recession

Evercore ISI analysts said that any attempt by the Trump administration to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell would "lead to a surge in stagflation trading," but they believe that such action is "unlikely." The trend in the bond and foreign exchange markets indicates that the market has lost confidence in Trump's economic policies. However, there is currently no sign that the market has lost confidence in the Federal Reserve, as indicators of expected inflation remain at low levels. Any move that undermines the Fed's independence will lead to a sharp rise in long-term yields due to inflation risks, a sharp steepening of the yield curve, a sharp decline in the US dollar, and a comprehensive increase in various risk premiums including stock risk premiums, which is likely to directly trigger an economic recession.