Pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre leads Polymarket odds to become Canada's next prime minister, replacing Justin Trudeau

Pierre Poilievre, the pro-crypto politician and head of Canada's Conservative Party, leads Polymarket odds for who will replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister after Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday. 

Users of the decentralized prediction platform placed $257,000 in bets on Poilievre, giving the conservative politician 89% odds in favor of winning the upcoming federal election expected this spring. The market on who will be Canada's next prime minister, which opened on Dec. 30, 2024, accrued $412,095 in total trading volume as of Monday.

"This market will resolve to 'Yes' if Pierre Poilievre is the next Prime Minister of Canada following the election," according to the market's resolution. "Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No.'" Poilievre, the opposition candidate, has been leading the odds since the market opened last week.

Trudeau has served as Canada's Liberal Party leader since 2013 and as prime minister since 2015. He announced on Jan. 6 that he will step down from both positions after the Liberal Party chooses who will replace him amid declining approval and political turmoil. A Polymarket prediction market for whether Trudeau will resign on Monday jumped from 19% odds to 82% odds before it resolved, surpassing $1 million in total trading volume. 

In 2022, Poilievre revealed that he maintained personal holdings in the cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund Purpose Bitcoin, based in Canada, and has also advocated for individuals to have the option to invest in bitcoin.