Record correlation between S&P 500 and election results suggests Harris could win

historical data shows that when the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rises in the three months before an election, the incumbent party candidate has an 80% chance of winning. Conversely, when the S&P 500 Index falls in the three months before an election, the probability of the other party's candidate winning is 89%.

It is reported that this has been a very accurate signal in every election since 1928. Commentators say that if the S&P 500 Index does not erase the 8% gain since August in one day, Harris is likely to win.

At the same time, market experts interviewed also pointed out that the current market and political situation are very unique, leading to a greater possibility that this election will be an exception to the above historical experience.