Bitcoin may fall below $60k but Trump win could boost it

According to Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) is unlikely to serve as a safe haven during geopolitical crises. 

Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, Kendrick predicts Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 before the weekend. 

However, he also sees this potential drop as a buying opportunity, especially with political factors like Donald Trump’s increasing chances in the upcoming U.S. election. 

Kendrick explains that geopolitical risks tend to push Bitcoin’s price lower, but these same tensions might favor Trump’s campaign, as Trump is seen as pro-crypto. 

Trump’s current odds of winning the November election have risen slightly, giving him a 50% chance against Kamala Harris. 

A Trump victory could be bullish for Bitcoin, as his administration is expected to accelerate pro-crypto policies, which may drive Bitcoin prices higher in the months following the election. 

In contrast, a Harris win could delay regulatory advancements, potentially hurting market sentiment. 

Despite the market’s turbulence, long-term Bitcoin holders are staying firm, though many are holding their coins at a loss. 

Kendrick highlights that around 47.4% of Bitcoin in circulation is currently in loss, particularly for those who bought near its all-time high. 

Still, the losses are not severe enough to trigger panic selling. 

Meanwhile, short-term holders have seen an improvement in profitability recently. 

Kendrick also notes that Bitcoin’s behavior has remained oddly consistent across different market cycles, despite changing economic conditions. 

Although Bitcoin has often been likened to "digital gold," Kendrick argues that it is not a geopolitical hedge like gold, but rather a hedge against financial system risks such as bank failures. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price was $60,921.96.