Altcoin bulls may have to wait longer, as Raoul Pal believes the cycle peak will be delayed until 2026.
Analysts believe that the cryptocurrency cycle has been extended by four to five years, and the altcoin season may be delayed until around the second quarter of 2026, as liquidity from ISM and post-quantitative easing policies will eventually arrive.
- Raoul Pal stated that the extension of debt maturities and the weak ISM rate index have delayed the classic four-year cryptocurrency cycle, with the liquidity peak possibly not arriving until 2026 instead of 2025.
- Tom Lee and other strategists believe that the real trigger for a rise in risk appetite will be when the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening and eventually implements quantitative easing, similar to previous cycles where alternative stocks often rally for several quarters after a policy shift.
- Ash Crypto pointed out that the total market cap of altcoins (excluding the top 10) is at a support level, and the altcoin season index is around 30, which means bitcoin will take the lead first, and the rotation to altcoins will be delayed.
Cryptocurrency market analysts are revising their expectations for an altcoin rally, with several well-known traders predicting that this event may be delayed until 2026, rather than following the traditional four-year cycle pattern.
Altcoin Bulls
Macro investor Raoul Pal pointed out that the extension of debt maturities during 2021-2022 has prolonged the typical cryptocurrency market cycle by about a year, forming what he calls a five-year cycle structure instead of the previous four-year cycle pattern. Pal's analysis suggests that this extension has reduced liquidity during the expected rally period.
Pal regards the ISM Manufacturing Index as a key economic indicator for cryptocurrency market trends. Historical data shows that when the ISM index rises above 50, bitcoin prices tend to increase (bitcoin), as do ethereum (ethereum), and according to his assessment, other cryptocurrencies often follow suit.
Pal said: "Our best estimate remains that the liquidity cycle is likely to peak around the second quarter of 2026." He also added that he does not believe the cryptocurrency market is entering a prolonged bear market.
Market strategist Tom Lee also noted the correlation between the ISM index and bitcoin and ethereum prices breaking above $50, with significant price increases, supporting the prediction that the cryptocurrency industry may continue to see substantial growth in the future.
Cryptocurrency trader Ash Crypto presented a chart analysis showing that, except for the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap, other cryptocurrencies are currently at support levels similar to those seen before previous altcoin rallies. The trader pointed out that significant price volatility in altcoins usually begins after the Federal Reserve ends quantitative tightening, at which point market liquidity returns and risk assets benefit.
2025 will be the first year of alternative investments.
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) December 17, 2025
Alternative picks for 2025: pic.twitter.com/SSS07yi5ww
Ash Crypto's analysis indicates that the current market structure is similar to that of 2020, and if historical patterns repeat, this could signal a rally for altcoins around 2026.
According to the calculation method for this indicator, the current altcoin season index is 37, indicating that the market has not yet entered a period where altcoins generally outperform.
Altcoins have underperformed bitcoin for several months according to market data, which has led cryptocurrency investors to question when the next altcoin rally cycle will arrive.
