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#Bitcoin: BTC is facing a trend line resistance between $95k-96k. Breakout this zone will push price towards $100k. While continue rejection on $96k will retest $88k-$90k. US economy data in this week will create intraday volatility.

Californian venture capital firm Pantera Capital tapped former Kraken legal head Marco Santori as a general partner amid growing investor interest in token deals and crypto IPOs. Pantera Capital has appointed Marco Santori, the former chief legal officer at crypto exchange Kraken , as a general partner to help the Californian venture capital firm navigate regulatory issues and support startups preparing for public listings. Time to put my money where my mouth is. Correction: Time to put *your* money where my mouth is, because today I am joining @PanteraCapital as a General Partner. I’m making the jump from lawyer to investor, and I think this is the perfect time to do it.… Santori is well known in the crypto industry for creating the SAFT framework, a tool used by projects to sell tokens to investors before launching. At Kraken, he led a legal team of nearly 70 lawyers and helped the exchange deal with two enforcement actions brought by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. He also worked as chief legal officer at another crypto firm, Blockchain.com. “For twelve years I’ve worked alongside you all to build the regulatory environment crypto enjoys today. We’ve won allies in Congress, unseated its most vicious detractors, and even helped put a pro-crypto president in the White House. The work’s not done, but we’re clearly in a new era, and now it’s time to invest in it.” Marco Santori Santori still serves as a senior adviser to Kraken. At Pantera Capital , which manages over $5 billion in assets, he will focus on companies “building in regulated spaces,” adding that he wants to find “new projects that can push the regulatory envelope without breaking it, get them funded, and help them thrive.”

ECB official: US tariffs may trigger anti-inflation effect in the eurozone, US dominance may shift to a multipolar system European Central Bank executive board member Cipollone said U.S. trade measures could weigh on eurozone inflation in the short term because they weigh on global economic expansion. "The short- to medium-term impact could lead to lower eurozone inflation because real interest rates in the eurozone have risen and the euro has appreciated after the U.S. announced tariffs," Cipollone said on Tuesday. "Trade measures could create the same inefficiencies as in the 20th century by shifting resources from high-productivity sectors to low-productivity sectors, and this contractionary effect could lead to persistently lower global growth rates." The strengthening of the euro may be the biggest surprise for policymakers since Trump announced the tariffs. They had expected the euro to depreciate, raising import costs, and EU countermeasures could push up inflation. "The eurozone has benefited from safe-haven inflows, with nominal bond yields falling as the euro appreciates," Cipollone said. He also raised the possibility that trade divergence could lead to "a gradual transition from a U.S.-dominated global system to a more multipolar system, where multiple currencies compete for reserve status." (Jinshi)

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The US economy is in the very early stages of a severe deceleration (and potential recession). This will start to matter in June, and start to show up in economic data published in July. Then things could get spooky by Q3/Q4. Trump can and will revert some of this. How much, that's everyone's guess. However, this is is not relevant for markets in the short-term. What matters now is not the economy, but further de-escalation, and earnings guidance from Wednesday onwards, starting with Caterpillar, followed by tech stocks. Don't think payrolls (next Friday) matter much at the moment given its backwards looking nature (and it's likely too early for layoffs). The FOMC next week will be much more important, as Powell may start to show a willingness to cut earlier. Short-term, my base case scenario remains higher risk in light of continued tariff de-escalation (likely IMO) and no major negative earnings surprises (more of a coin-toss, as very negative guidance is on the cards), coupled with further implied vol compression. Albeit with large swings both ways. I've been de-risking lightly around here after getting very long after Trump announced the 90-day pause on tariffs, as a simple matter of risk-reward. My preferred expression of upside risk remains bitcoin (not equities). Granted, I am biased, but do think that it has started to trade as a risk/gold hybrid (still more weighted towards risk) and therefore it may provide a very rare "tails I win, heads I win as well" risk profile. The jury is still out. Mid-term, I do not know if H2 will be a raging bull market or a crash and burn 2008 style market. Both are ironically possible. We will have to see in what direction and how aggressively Trump decides to swing. And what other measures he pushes through (e.g. tax cuts). My base case scenario is somewhere in the middle. That said, the most important thing here is that Trump has introduced a massive left tail that it would normally not exist. The tariffs 90 day extension ends on July 8th. It's worthy to mention that many altcoins have run dramatically from the lows. I would caution people on chasing alts up here. There is zero reason to FOMO in a Trump 2.0 world. There will be dips. Many dips. Finally, it is more important than ever to push aside political biases. If markets go on a free-fall, you do not want to get stuck with no cash in hand because you are pro Trump. Similarly, if sufficient trade deals take place to soften the economic blow and greatly reduce the risk of retaliatory rounds, and the Fed starts cutting, markets could easily decouple from the economy for an extended period of time, and being bearish because you are anti Trump may cost you a very hefty sum. I am very much aware this post does not conclusively say up or down. Sorry to disappoint. Happy trading, and thanks for all the fish.