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Crypto traders debate whether 2025’s drawdown is a new bear market or a late-cycle reset as QE, global rate cuts, and the U.S. CLARITY Act shape the 2026 outlook. Cryptocurrency traders and investors are questioning whether the digital asset market has entered a bear phase as 2025 draws to a close, amid ongoing price declines and speculation about potential regulatory changes and monetary policy shifts in 2026. Bitcoin traded below recent highs following the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data and an interest rate cut from the Bank of England. The combined cryptocurrency market capitalization retreated near a key trillion-dollar threshold before recovering slightly, according to market data. Among the top 50 digital assets with a full year of price history, only privacy tokens Zcash and Monero, along with $BNB token, posted positive returns for the year, according to price data. Bitcoin declined on a year-to-date basis, while numerous other major cryptocurrencies recorded significant losses over the same period. In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin ( $BTC ) fell below a major price level and has traded in a range beneath that threshold. The decline broke a key support level, prompting several market analysts to adopt bearish mid-term outlooks. A potential severe decline in 2026, stating that each cryptocurrency bull run has produced diminishing returns and that previous parabolic advances have experienced substantial corrections. The current parabolic advance has been violated and projected that a decline from the all-time high could bring prices to significantly lower levels. FED pivots on crypto While the United States and United Kingdom have implemented interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan raised its rates to the highest levels in five years. The divergent monetary policies have added uncertainty to global markets, with potential implications for the yen carry trade, a strategy where traders borrow yen at low interest rates to purchase higher-yielding assets in other currencies. Global economic uncertainty, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and emerging tensions between the United States and Venezuela represent additional factors affecting cryptocurrency market sentiment, according to market observers. The stablecoin market capitalization has grown significantly over the past twelve months, according to market data, indicating available liquidity within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. The United States implemented several interest rate cuts in 2025, and market pricing currently anticipates another reduction, which would maintain Federal Reserve quantitative easing policies. Quantitative easing typically increases liquidity by expanding the money supply and injecting capital into the financial system. Historical data shows that periods of significant quantitative easing, including during the pandemic, have coincided with cryptocurrency bull runs. Industry leaders, including Biggest crypto exchange founder, have expressed support for a potential supercycle thesis, suggesting that 2026 could mark the beginning of a new quantitative easing cycle. Some market participants argue that 2025 should not be characterized as a bull run due to the year’s quantitative tightening policies. The White House confirmed that the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act will be considered by the Senate as early as January, according to an official statement. The legislation will enter the committee stage, where amendments and finalization occur before floor consideration. Early indications suggest the bill may pass, according to political observers. The CLARITY Act aims to establish clear distinctions between tokens classified as securities and those classified as commodities, dividing regulatory oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If enacted, the legislation would provide cryptocurrency companies in the United States with a more transparent regulatory framework, replacing the current system of regulation through litigation.

$BNB is still trading under major resistance and a broader corrective structure. The recent move from 818 is a relief bounce, not a confirmed trend reversal. Price has now reached a strong supply zone around 850–855, where sellers have already shown interest. Volume on the bounce is moderate but not strong enough to confirm continuation. Multiple rejections near the same zone suggest distribution rather than accumulation. As long as $BNB fails to break and hold above 865, downside risk remains higher than upside. From a market perspective, sentiment across large caps remains cautious, and BNB is moving in sync with broader market weakness. This favors fade trades at resistance instead of chasing upside. Support Zones: • 838 – 835 (intraday support) • 820 – 818 (major demand zone) Resistance Zones: • 848 – 855 (active sell zone) • 865 – 875 (trend invalidation zone) Pullback Zone for Shorts: Any rejection, wick, or slowdown between 848 – 855 is a valid short entry. Failure to reclaim 855 opens the door for a move back toward 828 and 818. Trade with structure, not emotion. If you’re not following Token Talk, you’re making a mistake. #BNB #cryptocurrency

Bitcoin loses support levels and puts pressure on the crypto market. Stablecoins indicate available liquidity for 2026. The CLARITY Act could redefine regulation in the US. The cryptocurrency market entered a more cautious phase at the end of 2025, with investors reassessing expectations after the loss of relevant technical levels and the worsening annual performance of most digital assets. This correction occurs amidst growing bets that global liquidity may only regain strength in 2026. Bitcoin retreated from recent highs following the release of the US Consumer Price Index and the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates. As a result, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization approached a symbolic level of one trillion dollars before showing a slight recovery, according to market data. Related Stories No Content Available Among the top 50 digital assets with a full year-to-date history, few managed to maintain positive performance. Privacy-focused tokens, such as Monero and Zcash, as well as BNB, are among the exceptions. Bitcoin has accumulated losses this year, while other relevant cryptocurrencies have registered more significant losses in the same period. In the fourth quarter, the price of Bitcoin broke through an important technical support level and began to fluctuate below that level, reinforcing more conservative readings for the medium term. Analyst Peter Brandt believes that the current movement follows a pattern observed in previous cycles, marked by diminishing returns and corrections after rapid advances. In his view, the break of the parabolic advance opens the way for a deeper pullback throughout 2026. The macroeconomic environment adds complexity to the scenario. While the United States and the United Kingdom have adopted interest rate cuts, the Bank of Japan has raised rates to their highest level in five years. This divergence puts pressure on global markets and affects strategies such as carry trades in yen, with indirect repercussions on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Geopolitical factors also weigh on sentiment. The protracted conflict in Ukraine and recent tensions involving the United States and Venezuela amplify the perception of risk, according to market observers. Despite the price pressure, one indicator stands out: the market capitalization of stablecoins has grown consistently over the past 12 months. Analysts interpret this movement as a sign of latent liquidity in the ecosystem, ready to be mobilized when macroeconomic conditions improve. In the United States, the Federal Reserve has already implemented several interest rate cuts in 2025, and the market is pricing in further reductions. Historically, periods of quantitative easing have coincided with phases of greater expansion in the crypto market. In the regulatory field, the White House confirmed that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act will be reviewed by the Senate in January. The bill proposes separating the powers of the SEC and the CFTC, offering a clearer framework for cryptocurrency companies and replacing the practice of regulation via litigation. Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by the author, or anyone mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice. Investing or trading cryptocurrencies carries a risk of financial loss. Tags: Crypto market

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