Ціна NFPromptNFP

まず結論から... 金曜のNFP（雇用統計）改定は、「景気後退を示唆する内容ではない」にもかかわらず、市場は強く反応。 米2年2年フォワード金利差（対G10）は急低下し、ドルも急落。 多くの投資家が「やりすぎた」と感じている可能性がある。

最大の注目ポイントはここかもしれない。 「ADP（民間雇用調査）とNFPの差が、修正でほぼゼロに」 図の左：6月までのNFPとADPの乖離（相関0.17） 図の右：7月修正後は見事に一致（相関0.52） 正確な統計が何か、というより「両方とも不確実性が大きい中での偶然の一致」。

●要点まとめ ・7月NFP修正は異例の下方修正 ・内容は景気悪化というより統計ノイズ ・ADPとの乖離は解消、相関も上昇 ・市場は過剰反応、ドルや金利は巻き戻しの可能性 雇用統計は“信頼性”を問われているフェーズ。 今回の騒動は、その過渡期的な混乱とも言える。

RT @CryptoHayes: Y? US Tariff bill coming due in 3q … at least the mrkt believes that after NFP print. No major econ is creating enough cre…

1. Key Points Research Suggests the July 2025 non-farm payroll (NFP) report, released on August 1, 2025, showed only 73,000 jobs added, well below the expected 110,000, triggering significant market volatility. It seems likely that this weaker-than-expected data, coupled with Trump’s new tariff announcements, caused over $700 million in crypto liquidations, impacting Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. The evidence leans toward a broader risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin dropping below $113,000 and the total crypto market cap falling from $4 trillion to $3.69 trillion. 2. Introduction: Weak NFP Meets Strong Market Shock The July 2025 non-farm payroll report, a crucial indicator of U.S. economic health, revealed a shocking job growth of just 73,000—a sharp miss from the expected 110,000. Released on August 1, 2025, this underwhelming figure, alongside Trump’s aggressive tariff moves, rattled global markets. In the crypto space, the reaction was severe: over $700 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated, with major coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum tumbling sharply, underscoring the deepening linkage between traditional macroeconomics and the digital asset world. 3. Understanding NFP: Why It Matters The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report measures monthly job additions in non-agricultural sectors. It's a leading indicator of U.S. economic strength, influencing both traditional and digital markets. The July 2025 report not only missed forecasts but revealed troubling downward revisions: June revised from 147,000 to just 14,000 May slashed by 125,000 Unemployment rose to 4.2% These revisions reflect a cooling job market—potentially setting the stage for Fed rate cuts but simultaneously shaking investor confidence. 4. Market Reaction: Liquidations Wipe Out Bulls Crypto markets responded immediately: Bitcoin fell from ~$118,000 to below $113,000 Ethereum dropped 6.1% to $3,620 Altcoins like Solana and Cardano saw losses over 6.9% and 8.5% Total crypto market cap dipped by $310 billion, from $4T to $3.69T According to Coinglass and MITrade, over $707 million in long positions were liquidated within 24 hours. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell from 70 to 60, signaling a rapid shift in investor sentiment. 5. Amplifiers: Why the Crash Was So Severe Several factors intensified the impact: a. Economic Shock The missed forecast and massive downward revisions signaled an unexpectedly fragile labor market, stoking fears of economic slowdown. b. Trump’s Tariffs Announced simultaneously, the new tariffs—including 50% duties on imports from Switzerland, India, and South Africa—heightened global uncertainty. This macroeconomic stressor pushed investors toward safer assets and away from volatile markets like crypto. c. High Leverage The crypto market had been over-leveraged following recent all-time highs. The NFP data acted as a catalyst, triggering a wave of stop-losses and forced liquidations, snowballing into a full-blown crash. 6. Market Snapshot: Key Figures Metric Before Aug 1, 2025 After Aug 1, 2025 Change Bitcoin Price ~$118,000 ~$113,000 -4.2% Ethereum Price ~$3,850 ~$3,620 -6.1% Total Crypto Market Cap $4 trillion $3.69 trillion -7.75% Liquidations (24h) N/A $707 million (longs) N/A Fear & Greed Index ~70 (Greed) 60 (Fear) -10 points These figures, pulled from MITrade and Coinglass, depict a market in distress and underscore the importance of macroeconomic awareness for crypto traders. 7. Lessons for Crypto Traders This event is a reminder that crypto, while decentralized in architecture, is deeply interconnected with global macroeconomic conditions. Key takeaways: Watch major economic reports (NFP, CPI, Fed statements) Avoid excessive leverage, especially near high-volatility events Diversify across asset classes Prepare for macro shocks like tariffs and political events A weakened labor market may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, which could stimulate risk assets in the long term—but not without volatility. 8. Conclusion and Call to Action The July 2025 NFP report has proven to be more than a labor market update—it’s a wake-up call for crypto investors. With over $700 million wiped out, it's clear that macro trends can—and will—dictate the flow of capital in digital markets. As we await the Fed’s next move and monitor global trade tensions, smart investors will position themselves with informed strategies and risk awareness. 👉 What’s your take? Is this a short-term correction—or a deeper market reset? 💬 Drop your insights in the comments and let’s discuss. 🔁 Share this article to help others stay ahead of the curve. $BTC $ETH $BGB