Bitcoin Updates: Onchain Activity and Miner Expansion Face Off Against ETF Withdrawals and Federal Reserve Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s on-chain inflows have lifted its realized cap to over $1.1 trillion, an $8 billion increase largely fueled by treasury institutions and ETFs. However, the asset’s rebound is still limited by declining ETF interest and ongoing economic uncertainty. The crypto market’s $19 billion plunge in October has left investor sentiment in the “Fear” zone, with market watchers monitoring whether a resurgence in institutional buying and potential changes in Federal Reserve policy could spark renewed optimism, according to a

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ETFs experienced $470.71 million in net outflows on October 29, ending a four-day streak of inflows, as reported by . The largest withdrawals came from Fidelity’s FBTC and & 21Shares, which saw $164.36 million and $143.80 million in outflows, respectively, according to a . ETFs also faced $81.44 million in outflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA being the only one to record inflows. Analysts link the sell-off to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that the 25-basis-point rate cut in October might be the final one for 2025, raising concerns about tighter monetary policy, as noted in a .

These outflows contrast with the steady inflows seen in previous months, underscoring the fragile confidence investors have in crypto’s volatility, as highlighted by BeInCrypto. Despite the recent downturn, Bitcoin ETFs still manage $149.98 billion in net assets, representing 6.75% of Bitcoin’s market cap, while Ethereum ETFs oversee $26.60 billion, or 5.58% of ETH’s value, according to Coinpedia.

Following the Fed’s uncertain stance, Bitcoin’s price slipped 3.71% to $108,325.44, and Ethereum dropped 2.68% to $3,904.19, Coinpedia reported. Nevertheless, the announcement of a U.S.-China trade agreement in late October temporarily improved market sentiment. The deal, which delays tariffs on Chinese imports until 2026 and addresses rare earth mineral regulations, pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index up to 37 from 33, as stated in a

. Analysts such as Michael van de Poppe believe the October 11 market crash represented a “bottom day in hindsight,” a perspective also mentioned in the Coinotag article.

Bitcoin’s value climbed back above $111,300 after Trump announced reduced tariffs on China, but the rally quickly lost steam, according to a

. Data from Deribit indicates that the premium for downside puts has narrowed, suggesting that short-term fears are easing, as reported by . Still, analysts warn that China’s lack of official confirmation on rare earth agreements and the Fed’s unclear policy direction could keep volatility elevated, as the TradingView article noted.

Bitcoin mining operations are expanding, with hash rates increasing as companies like American Bitcoin — associated with the Trump family — acquire 17,280 ASIC machines for $314 million, according to the TradingView report. Ki Young Ju from CryptoQuant called this a “clear long-term bullish signal,” emphasizing that increased miner activity enhances network security and adoption, as discussed in a

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Despite these positive trends, Bitcoin’s price recovery still depends on a resurgence of ETF inflows. Ki Young Ju pointed out that current demand is mainly from ETFs and MicroStrategy, both of which have slowed their buying, as the TradingView report mentioned. Bitfinex analysts forecast that Bitcoin could reach $140,000 by November if ETF inflows return to $10–15 billion and the Fed implements two rate cuts in Q4, according to the TradingView article.

On-chain data and miner growth indicate underlying resilience for Bitcoin, but shifts in ownership — such as long-term holders selling to institutional investors — reflect a maturing market, as described in a

. While short-term price swings are likely to continue, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, provided macroeconomic conditions stabilize and ETF demand picks up again, as concluded in the TradingView report.