Astro Teller, who leads X—Alphabet’s hub for ambitious, high-risk projects—offered insights into the essence of a “moonshot” and elaborated on the organization’s philosophy of embracing rapid failure during his talk at the TechCrunch Disrupt 2025 event on Monday.
Waymo and Wing are among the standout ventures that originated from X’s moonshot initiatives.
Teller pointed out that only about 2% of X’s experiments succeed, meaning the vast majority do not pan out—and that’s perfectly acceptable.
He explained that X characterizes a moonshot by three main criteria: First, it must tackle a significant global challenge. Second, there should be a potential product or service, however improbable, that could resolve the issue. Third, a breakthrough technology must exist that offers a real possibility of addressing the problem.
“If you’re working at X and you come up with an idea like a teleporter, you’ve got the beginnings of a moonshot hypothesis. I’d say, great, here’s a small budget—go see if you can disprove it, because chances are, it won’t work,” he remarked. “I’m not asking you to make it succeed. I want you to gather evidence about whether this could truly be a once-in-a-generation breakthrough, and it’s fine if it turns out not to be.”
Teller added that if a proposed moonshot sounds plausible, X isn’t interested, since by their definition, a moonshot should seem far-fetched. That doesn’t mean the idea lacks merit; it’s just not what X is after.
“If your proposal sounds outlandish but meets those three criteria and can be tested, we can invest a little to find out if it’s even more far-fetched than we thought, or perhaps less so,” Teller explained. “If it turns out to be even crazier, great—let’s move on. If it’s not as wild as expected, fantastic—here’s a bit more funding. Keep searching for reasons to end the project, and repeat the process.”
Teller stressed that pursuing moonshots requires both boldness and humility in equal measure.
“Without a high level of boldness, you won’t embark on these improbable paths,” he said. “But if you lack deep humility, you might go too far down a path that’s unlikely to succeed.”
According to Teller, X initiates over 100 projects annually, and while only about 2% reach a successful exit after five or six years, 44% of the company’s spending goes toward projects that eventually become “exceptionally successful.” He attributes this to X’s practice of shutting down weak ideas early on.
Teller also mentioned that innovation is a skill that can be developed. He observed that everyone was inventive as a child, but over time, we tend to lose some of the traits essential for groundbreaking creativity. Still, he believes these qualities can be rediscovered by fostering an environment where people feel comfortable exploring unconventional ideas.
