XRP's Critical Monthly Candle Close: A Structural Inflection Point for a Potential Rally?

XRP stands at a pivotal moment as it approaches its monthly candle close, a structural inflection point that could determine its near-term trajectory. The cryptocurrency has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, bounded by a critical resistance level at $3.03 and support at $2.95. This pattern, a classic technical formation, often precedes a decisive breakout or breakdown. Historical backtesting of similar symmetrical triangle patterns in XRP from 2022 to now reveals that four valid breakouts occurred, yielding an average return of +3.40% over 30 days, with peak gains reaching +7.69% on day 29. However, the win rate across the 30-day window was 46.7%, indicating that while breakouts can be profitable, they carry inherent risk and are not guaranteed to succeed.

The $3.03 resistance level has historically acted as a psychological barrier, with multiple failed attempts to breach it despite intramonth surges. This resistance is now a focal point for traders and investors, as a sustained close above it would signal a shift in market sentiment. Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggest growing bullish momentum, though on-chain metrics reveal mixed signals. Whale selling activity and declining active addresses—down from 50,000 in mid-July to 24,000—highlight waning retail engagement.

Institutional interest, however, remains a wildcard. The recent reclassification of XRP as a utility token by the SEC has spurred speculation about potential ETF approvals, which could attract significant capital inflows. Volume surges and increased settlement volumes further underscore growing enterprise adoption. Yet, these developments must be weighed against bearish divergence in on-chain metrics, such as the drop in futures Open Interest from $10.94 billion to $7.97 billion, signaling reduced conviction in an uptrend.

A double-bottom pattern and Fibonacci retracement levels also offer a bullish case. If XRP holds above $2.95, the $4.00–$4.40 range becomes a plausible target. Conversely, a breakdown below $2.65—a key support level—could reverse months of progress, testing the $2.00 level.

Investors should monitor the $2.95–$3.00 support range and the $3.08–$3.10 resistance zone for confirmation of a sustained bullish move. The upcoming monthly close is not merely a technical event but a barometer of broader market confidence.

**Source:[3] XRP Price Faces Critical Support at $2.65 Amid Whale Activity [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604899198]