BTC Market Pulse: Week 34

Overview

In the past week, Bitcoin's spot price reached a new all-time high of over $123k, before retreating toward a recently created air gap near $114k. Spot market momentum has softened, with RSI cooling and Spot CVD sliding deeper negative, though trading volumes briefly recovered as sellers dominated.

In futures, open interest surged beyond its statistical extremes before a wave of deleveraging hit, while funding payments show traders remain willing to pay for long exposure, albeit with fragile conviction. Perpetual CVD reflects this shift, with sharp sell-side aggression suggesting higher risk in the near term.

Options markets show heightened engagement, with open interest climbing above its extremes and volatility spread surging, reflecting increased hedging and speculative activity. Meanwhile, 25-delta skew remains positive, pointing to sustained demand for downside protection.

ETF flows flipped strongly positive, with over $880M of weekly inflows, accompanied by higher trading volumes. This highlights resilient institutional demand, though the sustainability of these inflows will be critical amid price volatility.

On-chain, user activity and fee volumes softened, yet entity-adjusted transfer volume spiked, showing robust capital movement likely tied to volatility. Capital flows via realized cap have slowed, while holder composition remains stable, with only modest shifts toward short-term ownership.

Profit/loss metrics indicate elevated profitability, with Percent Supply in Profit at 96% and Realized P/L Ratio climbing to 2.4. While profitability is widespread, levels remain short of euphoric extremes, suggesting cautious sentiment balanced by fear of further profit-taking pressures.

In sum, the market has shifted from a rally to a new ATH into a sharp pullback toward the upper band of the sub-$114k air gap. Strong ETF inflows and elevated derivatives activity stand in contrast to weakening on-chain signals, leaving conditions fragile. With profit-taking on the rise, the sustainability of institutional flows and renewed buyer conviction in both spot and futures will determine whether this contraction stabilizes into fresh upward momentum or extends into deeper consolidation.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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