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Why Polymarket is wrong about Lighter's valuation Polymarket predicts a Lighter valuation of approximately $3 billion with $23 million in total volume, which is very high. But if you look at the market, you'll see some fundamental inconsistencies. Let's take a closer look. --------- I used a ratio that evaluates the FDV/TVL ratio. TVL is one of the most important metrics for any exchange, both PerpDEX and CEX, indirectly determining the level of trust in the protocol and is more stable than OI. That's why ratios based on it are highly accurate. For example, Hyperliquid's FDV/TVL ratio is 6.64, the highest among PerpDEX exchanges, representing the current leader. However, the ratios of other market players are close, in the range of 5-6. For example, Aster and Apex. Avantis stands out against this backdrop with a valuation of 2.59. We can also estimate the current fair value for some tokenless PerpDEXs - Ostium and Reya. Ostium recently closed a $20M round at a valuation of $250M with a TVL of ~$50M. While this isn't a market valuation, many large VC investors have supported the project, confirming that the current FDV/TVL ratio of 5 is the market average. Similarly, Reya raised $3M in its ICO on Coinlist with a TVL of $30M and a valuation of $50M. The sale closed successfully with 4,000 investors. This can also be considered a fair valuation, with some caveats. These case studies confirm that an FDV/TVL ratio of 5 is a fair market ratio. ---------- Why the coefficients for some PerpDEXs shouldn't be considered 1. Drift - A Solana-based PerpDEX with many other DeFi products in its ecosystem. Solana has little popularity in the PerpDEX space among its users, most of whom are meme-oriented. 2. Jupiter - Same as Drift, but with an even larger scale of products, making it difficult to separate the PerpDEX component of their valuations. 3. dYdX and GMX - ex-leading older PerpDEXs with numerous technical and business issues. These projects have fallen by the wayside of the current PerpDEX trend. 4. MYX - fake metrics and an artificial created valuation resulting in an FDV/TVL of 106. ---------- Fair valuation of Lighter I determined that the average FDV/TVL is 5. Based on this, we can predict that Lighter's valuation should be: $1.45B * 5 = $7.26B But this is only the current valuation. The launch of spot trading will add an additional TVL. - Polymarket values ​​Lighter's TGE at $3B - The team stated that they would distribute 25%-30% for point farming This means that $750M - $900M will enter the market. LIT will most likely be issued as an ERC-20 token, rather than directly into exchange balances like HYPE. This means that 40%-60% will go to Lighter spot, adding at least $400M-$500M, and Lighter's TVL will approach $2B. Because of this, the LIT valuation based on the new data should be: $2B * 5 = $10B. If we apply the HL coefficient to Lighter, its valuation will be $13.2B. P.S. It is very important that LIT go to Lighter and not other CEXs. I'm sure the team has already developed mechanics for this, which we will learn about in the coming weeks. --------- My another analysis confirms that Lighter's valuation should be in the $10B-$12B range. Anything below is buy and hold, IMO. Not Financial Advice

$LIT There's always a bull market somewhere

I like seeing real numbers before a token launch: $422M+ in decentralized assets, 1.7M+ secured accounts, 30M+ encryption ops. Lit seems to be operating in the wild. Hundreds of millions secured, millions of signatures signed, and a live user base already proving its reliability. The network’s ready to go open and tokenized.

I’m less interested in the first price candle and more in the next 6–12 months and the most interesting thing to watch post-TGE won't be price but developer adoption. Will Lit become the default key layer for Web3 or stay a tool for the few? That adoption curve is what will