Chinese Analysis Firm Says “Four-Year Cycle Back in the Spotlight” for Bitcoin, Answers the Question of Whether a Rise is Coming

According to the weekly report published by Matrixport, Bitcoin (BTC) has been on a downward trend since mid-October 2025.

The report notes that market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious, and with the re-emergence of the “four-year cycle” concept, many investors predict that pressure on Bitcoin could continue throughout 2026.

The report stated that the tightening volatility, reduced leverage, and weakening risk appetite in recent months have put pressure on the Bitcoin price. It noted a significant shift in market positioning, considering derivatives, ETF flows, and technical indicators. Furthermore, the approaching expiration of the largest Bitcoin option in history has made the strike price distribution a critical indicator for monitoring market pressure and potential opportunities.

Matrixport noted that investors generally tend to be more conservative as the year draws to a close, and that the decline in risk appetite has been particularly pronounced during this period. However, it was assessed that the reallocation of funds and the consolidation of risk budgets at the start of the new year could pave the way for a faster reversal in market sentiment.

From a technical analysis perspective, it was noted that the downward momentum has slowed, but a clear bullish consensus has not yet formed. According to the report, the market may be shifting from a phase where “downside risks outweigh upside risks” to a phase where “downside is limited, but catalysts are needed for upside.”

Current Bitcoin prices and weekly stochastic indicators also support this cautious outlook. The weekly stochastic indicator falling to the 17% level suggests the market may have entered oversold territory, while a short-term technical recovery is possible, although it requires a strong trigger.