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Historical Epic Option Expiry Market Trend Review: Significant Volatility Amplification, Often Experiencing One-sided Market Rally Acceleration

Historical Epic Option Expiry Market Trend Review: Significant Volatility Amplification, Often Experiencing One-sided Market Rally Acceleration

BlockBeatsBlockBeats2025/12/26 02:26

BlockBeats News, December 26, at 16:00 today (UTC+8), Bitcoin ushered in the largest-ever $23.7 billion annual settlement. The post-settlement market performance in previous years and quarters is as follows:


On December 29, 2023 (annual large settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $11 billion, the maximum pain point was around $42,000.

Pre-Expiration: The market was in an extremely suppressed state, with prices trading sideways in the $42,000 to $43,000 range.

Post-Expiration: The "cage" suppressing volatility disappeared, and BTC quickly broke out in the following days, initiating a one-sided trend towards $48,000 in early 2024.


On March 29, 2024 (quarterly settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $15 billion, the maximum pain point was around $65,000.

Pre-Expiration: With the market anticipating the Bitcoin halving, prices fluctuated between $60,000 and $70,000, showing high volatility. Active hedging activities led to short-term suppression.

Post-Expiration: After the release of gamma hedging, BTC quickly surged upwards, reaching above $70,000 on the eve of the halving, ushering in a new high and accelerating the bull market.


On June 28, 2024 (quarterly settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $17 billion, the maximum pain point was around $60,000.

Pre-Expiration: The market entered a retracement period, with prices oscillating around $60,000, increased selling pressure, and a noticeable gamma pinning effect.

Post-Expiration: Short-term volatility increased post-settlement, with BTC initially dipping and then rebounding. However, the overall trend remained a retracement, without an immediate strong uptrend.


On September 27, 2024 (quarterly settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $18 billion, the maximum pain point was around $62,000.

Pre-Expiration: Influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy, prices ranged from $55,000 to $65,000, with moderate liquidity and range compression due to hedging.

Post-Expiration: Increased volatility after settlement, with BTC breaking upwards. Benefiting from rate cut expectations, it started a rebound rally towards around $70,000.


On December 27, 2024 (annual large settlement), with a nominal value of approximately $19.8 billion, the maximum pain point was around $75,000.

Pre-Expiration: During the peak of the bull market, prices oscillated between $70,000 and $80,000. A predominantly call options market led to weak upward pressure, but with thin holiday liquidity.

Post-Expiration: Following the hedging release, BTC continued its bullish momentum, rapidly breaking through $80,000. The end-of-year Christmas market sentiment further drove prices up.


March 28, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a notional value of approximately $14 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $85,000.

Before Expiry: With positive regulatory developments, the price is expected to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000, sentiment is optimistic but there is a short-term downside risk, with gamma providing downside support.

After Expiry: Increased volatility after expiry, BTC breaking through $85,000, initiating a strong rally towards $100,000.


June 27, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a notional value of approximately $14.5 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $102,000.

Before Expiry: Mixed market sentiment with significant price fluctuations.

After Expiry: Short-term pullback post-settlement, but overall maintaining an uptrend without extreme volatility.


August 29, 2025 (Quarterly Delivery), with a notional value ranging from $13.8 billion to $14.5 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $116,000.

Before Expiry: Thin holiday liquidity, price oscillating between $110,000 and $120,000, enhanced gamma trap effect.

After Expiry: BTC briefly dipping below the maximum pain point before quickly recovering, increased volatility but rapidly bouncing back, continuing the bull market trend.


December 26, 2025 (Today's Annual Mega Delivery), with a notional value of approximately $23.6 billion, and a maximum pain point of around $96,000.

Before Expiry: Due to the Christmas holiday and thin market liquidity compounded by rising precious metal prices, the Bitcoin price traded sideways between $85,000 and $90,000, with gamma hedging strongly suppressing volatility.

After Expiry: It is expected that post-settlement the "cage" will disappear, market volatility will significantly increase, possibly breaking above the $90,000 range. Some analysts are optimistic about approaching $100,000, potentially even starting a New Year rally.

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