Bitcoin and gold are tied in returns and are shaping the narrative of the crypto market.

• Bitcoin and gold converge on a two-year return.
• Gold leads annual appreciation against Bitcoin.
• Volatility differentiates global stores of value.

The comparison between Bitcoin and gold has gained traction in the cryptocurrency market as the year draws to a close, driven by data showing a curious result. Despite quite distinct price trajectories, the two assets are heading towards a virtually identical percentage return when analyzed over a two-year period.

The numbers indicate that, over this broader period, both Bitcoin and gold rewarded investors who held their positions. Although the movements occurred at different paces, the final performance is similar, reinforcing the debate about the role of each asset as a store of value in a macroeconomic environment marked by uncertainty.

When the focus shifts solely to 2025, the picture changes. Gold has shown significantly higher appreciation, reaching a gain of approximately 79% compared to Bitcoin throughout the year. This performance reinforces the strength of the precious metal in the short term and supports the perception that it remains a preferred instrument during times of greater caution.

The cumulative return chart up to the end of 2025 clearly illustrates the differences in behavior. At the beginning of the two-year period, gold experienced more intense fluctuations, with rapid increases followed by deep corrections. These aggressive movements were smoothed out over time as the price approached the final return level.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, showed a more gradual trajectory. Although it also experienced dips along the way, its price evolution showed greater consistency, especially in the final part of the analyzed period. At this stage, the cryptocurrency's momentum increased continuously until it reached a return zone similar to that of gold.

This difference in volatility helps explain why the two assets are often classified in different ways. Gold maintains its history as a hedge against capital stress, while Bitcoin remains associated with a higher beta profile, with the potential for amplified gains and more noticeable fluctuations.

Economist Peter Schiff reiterated his critical view of Bitcoin, pointing to the cryptocurrency's price relationship with technology stocks as a warning sign for the crypto market. Even so, the convergence of returns over the two-year horizon suggests that, regardless of the dominant narrative at any given time, both gold and Bitcoin have managed to deliver significant results for patient investors, even starting from very different paths.

If Bitcoin won't go up when tech stocks rise, and it won't go up when gold and silver rise, when will it go up? The answer is: it won't. The Bitcoin trade is over. The suckers are all in. If Bitcoin won't go up, it can only go down. If HODLers are lucky it won't be a slow death.