Citi: The Upcoming Nonfarm Payroll Report May Release More Contradictory Signals

According to ChainCatcher, citing Golden Ten Data, the Financial Times analysis points out that the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to be released next Tuesday will include data for both October and November, ultimately providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the U.S. labor market and ending months of partial "blind flying." After a highly divided meeting this week, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to a three-year low, with several officials dissenting. The main debate centers on whether to prioritize tackling high inflation or addressing the weak job market.

Citigroup economists noted that the upcoming employment report may send more mixed signals. The bank expects a decrease of about 45,000 jobs in October, but an increase of 80,000 in November.

Citigroup economists stated that this rebound may be more related to seasonal data adjustments rather than a "true improvement in worker demand." They also predict the unemployment rate will rise from 4.4% to 4.52%, while a Reuters survey of economists shows an unemployment rate of 4.4%. The Federal Reserve's own quarterly forecast shows a median unemployment rate of about 4.5% by the end of this year.